Detroit (2-0) at Texas (1-2)
Nate Robertson vs. R.A. Dickey
Dickey is a new-founder to the Knuckleball. I did get to see him pitch his final pre-season game against Florida on April 1st. He had good movement with it and then lost control in the 3rd inning. When he is on, he is on… but when he is off, he is off. Wow, that’s a sports writer stock line, isn’t it. I am willing to bet that the performance on Saturday is going to be typical with R.A. He’ll most likely have a few good innings followed by a few bad. The key for him is a pitching coach coming out at the right time and giving him the words he needs to hear to get back on track. I’ve heard reports of a radio station complaining about a jet stream coming off the Gold Club… blah, blah, blah. If the hitter hits the ball, and the wind carries it, then it happens. Good pitchers make good adjustments, in whatever park they are playing in. If this was the Polo Grounds (shortest part of the park is 500 feet), I don’t think pitchers would hold back on challenging someone just because there is more ground that the outfielders have to cover. Each park has its problems and challenges. And to blame a pitchers mistake on something structural is simply a cop-out. Dickey didn’t have a wondrous pre-season, but I don’t think he was expected to. He came to work on his knuckleball and that he did. My expectations for his season are not great by any means, but I expect him to progress as the season goes. Based on numbers and previous performances against Detroit’s current batters, he has given up 5 RBIs in 39 batters faced. Should he face 20 batters, he will give up 3 runs. I think that number is low. I look for him to pitch 5 innings and give up more like 4 runs before yielding to the bullpen. I also think there is going to be several walks involved; being a knuckleballer is prone to the free pass. He doesn’t give up the extra-base hit much to these guys, though, only one double and that is it. The Rangers have some experience against Nate. 9 RBIs in 80 at-bats shows an 11.3% RBI ratio. The same amount, 20 batters would yield 2 to 3 runs (closer to the two). Nate has continued to improve each season, having a 5.44 ERA in 2003, 4.90 in 2004, and a 4.49 in 2005. May 9th, 2005, Nate pitched 8 innings of shutout baseball against the Rangers to collect his first win of 2005. He faced them again on June 2nd, this time only going 6 1/3 innings, giving up 4 runs (3 earned). He got a no-decision on that start. Dickey’s last appearance against Detroit was back in 2004 in which he started that crazy game where the Rangers gave up 8 runs in the top half and then scored 10 in the bottom half of the 16-15 win. Dickey’s part 4 2/3 innings and 6 runs, (all earned). Dickey didn’t have a knuckleball then, so the dynamic has changed a little. But the fact is that Nate is improving on what he has and Dickey is bringing in something new and inconsistent by him. It sounds like a Detroit win tonight, unless the pitching coach does his job and smoothes out the pitcher at the time. That is the true key to all this. I have to go with my gut and my gut says the stats will pull through on this one. Detroit will slap the Rangers silly and send Dickey to the showers early with a 6-2 victory.
Nate Robertson vs. R.A. Dickey
Dickey is a new-founder to the Knuckleball. I did get to see him pitch his final pre-season game against Florida on April 1st. He had good movement with it and then lost control in the 3rd inning. When he is on, he is on… but when he is off, he is off. Wow, that’s a sports writer stock line, isn’t it. I am willing to bet that the performance on Saturday is going to be typical with R.A. He’ll most likely have a few good innings followed by a few bad. The key for him is a pitching coach coming out at the right time and giving him the words he needs to hear to get back on track. I’ve heard reports of a radio station complaining about a jet stream coming off the Gold Club… blah, blah, blah. If the hitter hits the ball, and the wind carries it, then it happens. Good pitchers make good adjustments, in whatever park they are playing in. If this was the Polo Grounds (shortest part of the park is 500 feet), I don’t think pitchers would hold back on challenging someone just because there is more ground that the outfielders have to cover. Each park has its problems and challenges. And to blame a pitchers mistake on something structural is simply a cop-out. Dickey didn’t have a wondrous pre-season, but I don’t think he was expected to. He came to work on his knuckleball and that he did. My expectations for his season are not great by any means, but I expect him to progress as the season goes. Based on numbers and previous performances against Detroit’s current batters, he has given up 5 RBIs in 39 batters faced. Should he face 20 batters, he will give up 3 runs. I think that number is low. I look for him to pitch 5 innings and give up more like 4 runs before yielding to the bullpen. I also think there is going to be several walks involved; being a knuckleballer is prone to the free pass. He doesn’t give up the extra-base hit much to these guys, though, only one double and that is it. The Rangers have some experience against Nate. 9 RBIs in 80 at-bats shows an 11.3% RBI ratio. The same amount, 20 batters would yield 2 to 3 runs (closer to the two). Nate has continued to improve each season, having a 5.44 ERA in 2003, 4.90 in 2004, and a 4.49 in 2005. May 9th, 2005, Nate pitched 8 innings of shutout baseball against the Rangers to collect his first win of 2005. He faced them again on June 2nd, this time only going 6 1/3 innings, giving up 4 runs (3 earned). He got a no-decision on that start. Dickey’s last appearance against Detroit was back in 2004 in which he started that crazy game where the Rangers gave up 8 runs in the top half and then scored 10 in the bottom half of the 16-15 win. Dickey’s part 4 2/3 innings and 6 runs, (all earned). Dickey didn’t have a knuckleball then, so the dynamic has changed a little. But the fact is that Nate is improving on what he has and Dickey is bringing in something new and inconsistent by him. It sounds like a Detroit win tonight, unless the pitching coach does his job and smoothes out the pitcher at the time. That is the true key to all this. I have to go with my gut and my gut says the stats will pull through on this one. Detroit will slap the Rangers silly and send Dickey to the showers early with a 6-2 victory.
2 Random Thoughts:
you were close. final score was 6-1. oh wait! 6-1 was the number of HOME RUNS hit by each team, not the final score. :-(
To be honest, I was thinking that Detroit would do more damage than the prediction indicated... and regretfully, I was right on that. At least the Rangers showed a little more stick than I thought.
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