Mavs at Spurs

At 7:00 PM Central Time tonight, there may be a shift in power in the NBA. The Dallas Mavericks (56-19) walk into San Antonio (58-17) to try to hand them their second consecutive home loss. In Avery Johnson’s perspective, it is a must win (but I think that is always his perspective). The Mavs coach simply doesn’t care for the taste of loosing. Dallas scores 99.7 points per game and gives up 93.1 for a spread of 6.6 points. San Antonio averages 95.7 points and gives up 88.8. Dirk has averaged 23.7 points against San Antonio this season. Howard, who has only played two of the three, averages 16. Damp notably averages 2 blocks and the Spurs. Howard should shoot the ball a good deal tonight; he shoots 50% from the field against San Antonio. The Mavs also are averaging 29 free throws in the three games and 75% makes on those. It would be nice to see both of those numbers go up in tonight’s game, would make for an easier win. But I don’t think the Spurs are going to make it easy, by any means. To both teams, this is a pre-playoff game. It’s as they say in football, “Any Given Sunday”. Parker and Duncan are the point’s boys in Spur land. Parker puts up 25.7 against Dallas this season and Duncan 15.3. Parker’s FG% against Dallas is almost 60% and Dallas needs to make it their purpose to cut that down quite a bit. At least tonight they do. Fin and Ginobili also average double digits in the points category. Dallas needs to manhandle the Spurs, needing to out rebound, block shots, and control the ball. Most importantly, they just need to out defend. The point spread is Spurs by 5. The Spurs play better defense and that may be enough for them to win this game. The age old saying is that defense wins championships. The better defense tonight will win this game. My gut is screaming and crushing my logic. The one intangible in all this remains to be Avery Johnson. The call I feel that is right in all that I have said is this: The Mavericks over the Spurs: 94-92.