Monday, April 02, 2007

Mavericks in April

The Dallas Mavericks enter April still with best record undecided, the division still undecided, and the conference undecided. They have clinched a home court in the first round and at least a number three seed, but with 61 wins and the best record clinched in franchise history, still much is left to do for this team.

The Dallas Mavericks are only one in two teams in NBA history to have a stretch run of 46-4 over 50 games. They are the only team in NBA history to have three winning streaks in a season of 12 games or more. They set a new team record winning streak at home. They also set a new franchise record this season with the longest winning streak.

Dirk's play in the "tough" games has been concerning, yes, but I still am trying to think of the bigger picture. Is Phoenix better than Dallas? Maybe in a one-game situation. In a seven-game series, I wouldn't count on it. And in a best four-out-of-seven-game series, I would think that would go seven, and I would take Dallas in that every time, at least this season.

Maybe next year, too. Depends on what happens in the off-season. But let's not get ahead of ourselves.

Will Dallas win 70? They would have to win every game the rest of the way. Can they do it? Yes. Will they do it? No. Why? They don't need to. They just need a hand-full of wins. And so what will happen is Dirk's playing time is going to go down, as well as the rest of the starters, such as Howard, Harris, Jet, etc. and you are going to see more of George, Diop, and others who normally don't play as much day-to-day, or at least are expected to knock down a bunch of points.

How many wins then? It's really hard to say, but for now, the weather-man is leaning more toward 66 wins for the season (That's a 66-26 record, not bad at all). And, domination in the PLAYOFFS. Since the first round is a best of seven series, the maves have to win 16 games to walk away with an NBA Title. The first round is a gimmie. That's four wins. The second round is considerably tougher, however the Mavs will move on, whether it is the Rockets or the Jazz, they will persevere. The Spurs or the Suns series will be extremely entertaining to watch. I don't really care who wins the series (although I would be willing to bet it would be the Suns), I would just like for it to be a full seven EXHAUSTING games for the team who wins out. Should the Spurs advance, the Mavs would have an easier series and move to the Finals. If the Suns win out, which is most probable, then the Mavs are looking at a seven EXHAUSTING games themselves before moving to the finals and playing Cleveland. (That's 12 wins) In an entertaing 6 games, the Mavs become the NBA Champs.

But here's the thing: Dirk as MVP. People have a hard time talking about it. Steve Nash isn't going to be MVP this year. The voters aren't going to let it happen, simply because he has won the previous two. Is Dirk worthy? I don't know. His game is better than it ever has been. And he's still getting better. Isn't that what makes an MVP? He's truly a team player, unselfish, devoted, teachable. And when have you heard of a franchise player being teachable? When I think of the characteristics of a Shaq or Kobe or even Nash, I don't think teachable. And Nash was in Dallas. I still wish he was, or at least part of me does. But I would not want a Shaq or Kobe in here, even on the league minimum.

If I was a voter, I would have to be honest here and simply say I wouldn't know right now who to vote for at this point. James has my attention and Dirk has my attention. Even though Kobe scored 50 or more in four consecutive games, he admitted that he thought Dirk deserved the MVP. That actually scratched Kobe from my mind right there. Up and till then, Kobe had been on my mind. The Mavs beat Cleveland both times they played them, and even flustered James the second time, at least until the fourth quarter, where James collected most of his points.

Even though Nash is actually the most deserving, he is on a team that can't play any defense. They run themselves ragged. Why hasn't the Suns won a championship? They get tired in April/May. Nash can score and distribute the ball, which is what a point can do and he is about as good as they come. This is the tag against him: "He's got the last two, give it to somebody else this year." So what if Nash is still the best?

And here is another thing to think about: Yao returns and the Rockets go crazy with wins. Off the top of my head, I think it's like 17-3, but it could be wrong. I know they are playing great basketball with Yao back, though, which makes him a strong consideration for MVP. So let's take a look at the list:

Dirk Nowitzki:
The GOOD - Team is the best in the NBA
The BAD - Tagged as "chokes" in big games

LeBron James:
The GOOD - Considered the best player in the Eastern Conference
The BAD - Thought as a player who hasn't "fully developed"; In the Eastern Conference

Steve Nash:
The GOOD - Considered the best player in the NBA, at least the best point guard
The BAD - Won the last two MVPs

Yao Ming:
The GOOD - Team is coming up strong since his return from Injured List
The BAD - May not get big consideration due to where his team ranks overall in the standings

So, what does the Weatherman say in all this: which of these four will get the MVP? You know, it could be someone outside of the four, such as Wade... let's hope not. But anyway, I really think that it could go down to these four, and the Forecast calls for Yao Ming. Yep, the NBA loves centers... they love the dunks, and Yao is the guy.

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