Rangers vs. Blue Jays

Bah - HUMBUG! That's what I am feeling these days. I know my Rangers are going to pull this out and win the division and make the playoffs for the first time since 1999. Maybe they should start partying like it's 1999. That could possibly turn things around. And to add insult to injury the Mavericks lost last night. I make a prediction of Mavs in seven, but keep my hopeful mind to something less than that. Well it's seven or over. I would think that Avery Johnson is spending the ENTIRE day talking to his team about what they are going to do in Game 5. They shouldn't even thing about games 6 or 7. They have to take care of the G5 business first. If the Mavs give the Warriors a "knock them down and kick them for falling" defeat, (A-LA 20+ point loss), that might give them enough gusto to go back to the Eureka Arena, or whatever it's called, and slap them silly there, thus coming back home for Game 7, winner take all. That's actually what I see on my Weather-Channel right now.

Rangers vs. Blue Jays

Vicente "Beanball" Padilla goes up against the Blue Jay Ace, Harry Leroy Halladay. Both guys are born in 1977, Padilla in September and Harry in May. I just like calling him Harry. I don't know, it just seems fun. I wonder if his parents call him Harry. Halladay comes already with an impressive 2007. Check this out:

• He's thrown a 10 inning complete game.
• He hasn't pitched less than 6 innings (which only happened once on April 2nd).
• Every start for Halladay has been a Quality Start (5).
• His last start, he collected 10 strike-outs, walking none, in 8 innings against Boston.

At home, Halladay has a 1.56 ERA, in two starts - one against Boston and Detroit. He's averaging over 7 innings a start. In his career at home, he has 53-23 record, 15 CG and 5 shutouts with a 3.34 ERA. April is Halladay's worst month (almost, but let me explain this through). Halladay has his highest ERA this month, although the worst month (wins-losses) would be August (10-11 vs. 17-11 in April). Halladay's ERA by month:

• April: 4.44
• May: 3.23
• June: 3.63
• July: 3.47
• August: 4.37
• September: 2.45
• October: 0.53

I guess the question remains - is Halladay having a "May frame of mind", or is he still thinking April? By the looks of his 2.58 ERA, I would say he's somewhere in September. The Rangers are a team who happen to do fairly well against Halladay. The team historically bat a .297 against him and are 4-4 against the Ace. His ERA against the Rangers is 5.77. The Rangers are tied third for hitting the most homeruns off of him (Boston [18] and Baltimore [12] have more, tied with Tampa Bay) with 11. Currently, things look a little different with the roster the Rangers have. The current team is batting .237 (33-139) against Halladay with four players boasting homeruns off of him (totalling up to 5 dingers). The hitters:

• Michael Young: 9-24 (.375 ave.; 1 triple, 1 HR, 4 RBIs)
• Hank Blalock: 9-23 (.391 ave.; 2 doubles, 2 HRs, 3 RBIs - WARNING: 8 Ks)
• Frank Catalanotto: 5-22 (.227 ave.; 1 double, 2 triples, 5 RBIs - NOTE: Will not play today due to injury)
• Mark Teixeira: 3-11 (.273 ave.; 1 HR, 2 RBIs)
• Sammy "Hunting 600" Sosa: 2-9 (.222 ave.; 1 double, 1 HR - WARNING: 3 Ks)
• Ian Kinsler: 0-3 (.000 ave.; I just put this here to show that the guy is going to raise this today, should he be in the lineup - he better'd be.)

There's six players, five of which should be in the lineup tonight. Time to check out Padilla, who in five starts, the Rangers haven't won a single game he has started (0-5 when Padilla takes the hill). But there is some good news, he does have two Quality Starts despite his 0-3 record, and since his first start left him with an ERA of 11.57, he has consistently dropped that ERA down with each outing (currently at 5.79). He's pitched at home once out of his five starts, and that start seemed to me to be the better of his five. Padilla has not hit a 100 pitch count this season.

In his career against Toronto, Padilla has compiled 13 2/3 innings of work in two starts, going 2-0 and a building a 3.29 ERA. Padilla needs to continue to do this tonight. His problems thus far in the season (it may go without saying, but I'll say it anyway): Strikeouts are WAY down, walks are WAY up. Padilla had 70 walks last year and 74 the year before last; he has 16 in five starts. He's on pace for 104 walks and only 65 Ks. That's a pace of 91 strikeouts less that last year, and obviously 34 walks more. What it means is more balls put into play with runners on base. It's not a good combination. I think Padilla can bring a good showing tonight.

Toronto is hitting .250 against Padilla. They have one "shot-in-da-stands" and 5 runs, all earned. Padilla only walked two and struck out 13 in his two starts against them. This should be a very good game. The Boo Jay hitters:

• Lyle Overbay: 4-17 (.235 ave.; 1 double, 1 HR, 7 RBIs) WARNING: 4 BBs
• Frank Thomas: 3-16 (.188 ave.; 2 HRs, 2 RBIs)
• Jason Phillips: 5-14 (.357 ave.; 1 double, 1 HR, 1 RBI)
• Gregg Zaun: 3-10 (.300 ave.; 1 double, 1 RBI)
• Troy Glaus: 1-9 (.111 ave.; 1 double) NOTE: 3 Ks
• Vernon Wells: 1-6 (.167 ave.; 1 RBI)
• Matt Stairs: 1-4 (.250 ave.; 1 RBI)

Now, the current Boo Jay roster is only hitting .204 against Padilla, but the OBP is .293 due to 13 walks those players have. The current team has four HRs and 13 RBIs on 103 at-bats. This really feels like it is too close to call. My gut is telling the game will be decided by the bullpen and not by Padilla or Harry. Both starters will go into the seventh inning, or at least finish the sixth. Padilla will surpass the 100 pitch mark for the first time this season. Happy Harry Halladay will give up enough runs to not let him pitch a complete game, as well as not get a Quality Start for the first time this season. Time for the Forecast!

Forecast: Into the 'pen we go, especially after an exchange of bruises from each side, possible ejections on the young year. Rangers prevail during "dirty-ball", win 6-4.