Could either of these teams be going to the World Series? Well, yes, but I really don't feel either of them will be going. It is really going to be decided, in my mind, by who wins the Cubs/Dodgers series. Still, both of these teams do have a chance... especially the Brewers, who I pick to win this series.
Scouting Report:
Brewers: In choosing Gallardo, Brewers manager Dale Sveum picked raw talent over experience. He could have used postseason stalwart Jeff Suppan (5-2 with a 3.00 ERA in nine career postseason starts) on regular rest or Dave Bush on three days' rest. Instead, Sveum went with Gallardo, the Brewers' most promising young pitcher, but also a 22-year-old less than five months removed from a major right knee injury. He had surgery to repair a torn ACL in May and was back in Milwaukee's rotation on Sept. 25 for a start against the Pirates. He threw 67 pitches in four innings and allowed one run on three hits, including a Steve Pearce solo home run. He looked extremely good on the mound but in his only at-bat, Gallardo never took the bat off his shoulder. It was sign that the Brewers did not want him on the basepaths with a surgically repaired knee.
Gallardo has only four starts this season and has a 0-0 record with a 1.88 ERA. More importantly, he has a 9-5 record on his career with a 3.35 ERA. I don't know if you can judge him on this seasons performances due to his injury, so I will be looking more at career stats instead of this season's stats.
Against Philly, he is 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA in one start. He went 6.2 innings giving up four hits and walking one while striking out seven. He gave up one run, a HR to Pat Burrell. Pedro Feliz also hasa HR on Gallardo with two RBIs. The current roster is 6-25 (.240 BA) with 2 HRs and 3 RBIs.
On paper, he seems like a good choice, but only one start against someone, which the start was over a season ago, is difficult to decide if it is really a trend or not. Still, I wouldn't expect him to give up more than three runs today.
He has a 5.40 ERA during the day in 2007, but 2008, it dropped down to a 2.77 ERA. That could be the stat that could define him in this start.
Phillies: The Phillies' leader in innings and ERA among starters (3.09) will be making his second Game 1 start after working against the Rockies to kick off the NLDS last season. A rough second inning doomed him in a 4-2 defeat, and he didn't get another chance as the Rockies won the next two games for a sweep. The Phils' lefty ace will be facing the Brewers for the sixth time in his career, and has a 4.41 ERA against them.
Brewers to Watch:
Prince Fielder: 4-15 (.267 BA) with 2 HRs and 5 RBIs
JJ Hardy: 4-11 (.364 BA) with 2 doubles, a HR, and 4 RBIs
Ryan Braun: 3-10 with a double, a HR, and a RBI
The current roster is 24-111 (.216 BA) with 6 doubles, 5 HRs, and 14 RBIs. Hamels seems like an obvious choice for the first game of this series. The Phillies are definitely bringing their A game to the show. Hamels is 2-1 in five starts against the Brewers. The team is batting .219 historically against him. He's pitched 34.2 innings, giving up 28 hits (5 HRs) and 10 walks. He has struck out 36 while giving up 17 runs giving him a 4.41 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP.
Forecast: This is probably going to be a tight game, simply because I suspect that the Brewers are going to give up 3 runs, maybe 4, in the first six innings, and about the same for the Phillies. Should this game be defined by the relief pitching, which is what I believe to be the case, it will fall into the hands of the Phillies, who have better pitching. Look for a score in the neighborhood of 7-5, Phillies.
Home Plate
Could either of these teams be going to the World Series? Well, yes, but I really don't feel either of them will be going. It is really going to be decided, in my mind, by who wins the Cubs/Dodgers series. Still, both of these teams do have a chance... especially the Brewers, who I pick to win this series.
Forecast: This is probably going to be a tight game, simply because I suspect that the Brewers are going to give up 3 runs, maybe 4, in the first six innings, and about the same for the Phillies. Should this game be defined by the relief pitching, which is what I believe to be the case, it will fall into the hands of the Phillies, who have better pitching. Look for a score in the neighborhood of 7-5, Phillies.
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