First off, I should note that there is a 37.5% chance that a team will make the playoffs, based on a 12/32 ratio. Talent, experience, and coachability are factors to consider, as well as what the team has done over the last year to base predictability on making the playoffs and winning a Superbowl. All in all, 20 teams stay home for the playoffs, 12 teams move on at the end of the regular season, with two of the 12 going to the big show. The following are the thoughts of Evan Adrian, afterwhich are my thoughts. Enjoy!
32. Rams
Steven Jackson is a great player, but no running back could carry this train-wreck of a team to the playoffs. Odds to win it all: 100 to 1
31. Bucs
Get your Heat tickets before they sell out, Buc fans. Odds to win it all: 90 to 1
30. Bills
Training camp is right around the corner, and we still don’t know who the Bills’ starting quarterback or running back is. Odds to win it all: 85 to 1
29. Brownies
But in the uber-competitive AFC North, it won’t even be close to enough to sniff a playoff berth. Odds to win it all: 80 to 1
28. Lions
I LOVE the Lions’ 2010 draft class, especially Ndamukong Suh, who will undoubtedly be a better pro than first overall pick Sam Bradford. Overall, this teams stinks, though. Odds to win it all: 75 to 1
27. Chiefs
This is a team that could sniff .500 in 2010, but a playoff birth seems to be out of the question. Odds to win it all: 60 to 1
26. Raiders
Oakland finally seems to be getting personnel moves right, thanks to Al Davis reportedly relinquishing some control. The Raiders have a talented backfield, a stud tight end in Zach Miller, an underrated offensive line, and a punishing defense. Odds to win it all: 50 to 1
25. Broncos
Denver got rid of Brandon Marshall this off-season, who was hands down their best play-maker. Rookie Demaryius Thomas will try to pick up the slack, but he won’t come close to Marshall’s numbers. Odds to win it all: 45 to 1
24. Seahawks
I don’t know how much Matt Hasselbeck really has left. And with Seattle’s acquisition of Chargers’ QB Charlie Whitehurst, I don’t think Seattle’s front office has much of an idea, either. Odds to win it all: 40 to 1
23. Cards
Losing Kurt Warner hurts. A lot. Arizona’s QB depth chart now looks like this: 1. Matt Leinart 2. Derek Anderson 3. John Skelton 4. Max Hall. Let the QB controversy begin! Beating out the 49ers for a playoff spot would be reason to celebrate. Odds to win it all: 38 to 1
22. Da BearsI’m not saying that the Bears will be the greatest show on turf 2.0, but they will certainly be better with Mike Martz calling the shots. Devin Hester, Johnny Knox and company seem to fit the prototypical small receiver build that Martz does well with. If Matt Forte can return to 2008 form, Chicago’s offense could take flight. Odds to win it all: 36 to 1
21. Jags
If Garrard can play game-manager relatively well in 2010, the Jaguars have a legitimate shot at the playoffs (as long as Jones-Drew stays healthy). Super Bowl aspirations,though, are on hold for the time being. Odds to win it all: 35 to 1
20. 'Skins
Mike Shanahan has taken over as Washington’s head coach, and he seems to have taken the 2006 Pro-Bowl roster with him (Willie Parker, Donovan McNabb, Larry Johnson, and incumbent Clinton Portis). Can Washington compete in the East Beast Division? Odds to win it all: 32 to 1
19. Dolphins
Is Henne good enough to lead Miami to the postseason? He very well might be. Can he carry them to a Super Bowl? Certainly not. Odds to win it all: 30 to 1
18. 49ers
I like this team, but I don't love them. Winning the NFC West really amounts to nothing once the playoffs start. The 49ers are a young, growing team, but expect some serious growing pains once the playoffs start. Odds to win it all: 30 to 1
17. Mighty-Mighty Boss Cats (Panthers)Carolina is handing the reigns over to Matt Moore this year after cutting Jake Delhomme in the offseason. If Moore can manage the game well and limit his turnovers, Carolina’s run game and defense could carry them to the playoffs. But a Super Bowl? No. Odds to win it all: 28 to 1
16. Eagles
Their defense and improved run-game could take them to the playoffs, plus they have that DeSean Jackson guy, who seems to make the occasional big play. I sort-of like the Eagles, but I don’t trust them farther than I can throw them. Odds to win it all: 28 to 1
Schaub played an entire season for the first time in 2009, and he was simply amazing. He racked up 29 touchdowns, 4,770 yards, and a QB rating of 98.6 (healthy temperature and QB rating). Houston’s offense was prolific last season, and I expect more of the same in 2010. If the Texans’ defense can keep up, the Houston Texans could get to the playoffs for the first time ever. Anything beyond a playoff berth would be a miracle. Odds to win it all: 26 to 1
14. Bengals
The Bengals seem to be in the news for all the wrong reasons this offseason. This is a team with too many questions, so here’s my answer: steer clear of Cincinnati. Odds to win it all: 25 to 1
13. Falcons
10 wins would be tremendous for this team, and it’s easily within reach. A deep playoff run, however, seems to be out of reach. Odds to win it all: 22 to 1
12. Giants
Eli Manning is better than you think he is, and so are New York’s receivers. Don’t sleep on the Giants, but don’t bet on them either. Odds to win it all: 20 to 1
11. Titans
Young was great as a starter last season, taking over for Kerry Collins and leading the Titans to an 8-2 record down the stretch. With a full season as a starter on the horizon,the sky is the limit for Young. Odds to win it all: 18 to 1
10. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers crack my top ten despite trading away their best receiver and being forced to play 4-6 games without their starting quarterback. If Pittsburgh can manage to win at least half of their games without Big Ben, they’ll be in good shape to make the playoffs. Willie Parker is gone, meaning 2010 is Rashard Mendenhall’s time to shine. And I think he’s more than capable of carrying the load. If Pittsburgh’s receivers can make up for Santonio’s absence, I can see the Steelers making a serious run at the Lombardi Trophy. Good coaching and good defense will get you a long way in the playoffs, and Pittsburgh has both. Odds to win it all: 15 to 1
9. New York JetsI love me some Rex Ryan. He’s exactly what a New York NFL coach should be. He’s transformed the Jets from New York’s other football team into the headliner. The Jets had the loudest offseason in the NFL, picking up LaDainian Tomlinson, Santonio Holmes, and Jason Taylor, to name a few. Quarterback Mark Sanchez now has a year of experience under his belt, not to mention 2 playoff victories. I like what they’re building in New York, but I don’t see it all coming together as well as last season. Odds to win it all: 12 to 1
8. San Diego Chargers
Hey look, it’s the Chargers! The team everyone thinks has a legitimate shot at the Super Bowl every year, but seems to come up short. Well guess what? I’m not buying San Diego in 2010. When your team is only in the news for the wrong reasons, things aren’t exactly great. The Chargers ditched the best player in the history of their franchise (LaDainian Tomlinson) and replaced him with a rookie (Ryan Mathews). Their best offensive lineman (Marcus McNeill) is holding out for more money. Their best receiver (Vincent Jackson) is too, plus he’s suspended for three games. Ouch. I will give them this, though: their head coach (Norv Turner) is underrated, Philip Rivers might be a top-5 QB, and their defense is better-than-good. So they’ve got to be a top-ten team on this list. If I were a betting man, though, I wouldn’t touch the Chargers with a ten-foot pole. Odds to win it all: 11 to 1
7. Green Bay Packers
After a heartbreaking end to their 2009 campaign, Green Bay should be hungry, mad, and ready to get at it in 2010. Aaron Rodgers has been better than good since Brett Favre left, retired, signed with the Jets, left, retired, and signed with the Vikings. Rodgers' receivers are solid, he has an emerging tight end in Jermichael Finley, and I think Ryan Grant is due for a huge season in 2010. Green Bay’s defense really is underrated. Their linebacking corps is full of playmakers, and their secondary was good in 2009, with the obvious exception of their wild-card meltdown. A spot in the playoffs should be a given, and a Super Bowl victory is not out of this team’s reach by any means. Odds to win it all: 21 to 2
First things first: Brett Favre is going to play in 2010. Ok? Settled? Good. Second, he’s not going to be as good as he was last year. I don’t think anyone can reasonably expect him to be. But their run game shouldbe better. Adrian Peterson wasn’t as good as you think he was last year. Sure, he scored 18 touchdowns and ran for nearly 1,400 yards, but his YPC was a career-low 4.4, and he lost a career-high 6 fumbles. I’m not saying he’s not great, I’m just saying there’s room to improve. With their talented group o fpass catchers (Sidney Rice, Percy Harvin, Visanthe Shiancoe, Bernard Berrian) and their punishing defense, a playoff berth for this squad is a given, but a Super Bowl is probably just out of reach (again). Odds to win it all: 10 to 1
5. Dallas CowboysFirst off, I’m not a Cowboys fan. I know they’re America’steam, and I live in America, but that still doesn’t make me a fan. However, I am buying the Cowboys as NFC East champions, and the odds-on favorite to win homefield in the NFC. Tony Romo seems to keep getting better and better, Miles Austin has emerged as a legit number one receiver, and Jason Witten is arguably the best pass-catching tight end in the NFL today. Not to mention that loaded backfield of Marion Barber, Felix Jones, and Tashard Choice. Their defense is solid too, and they do a tremendous job getting in the backfield and making plays. Oh, and if that Dez Bryant guy turns out to be decent, we may see Dallas playing for Super Bowl XLV in their own stadium in February. Odds to win it all: 10 to 1
4. Baltimore RavensAh yes, the Baltimore Ravens. Seems like they’re the chic pick to take home the Lombardi Trophy in 2010. And why not? Baltimore’s backfield could be the best in the NFL, with Ray Rice leading a three-headed charge that also includes Willis McGahee and LeRon McClain. Plus, Joe Flacco has another year under his belt and a new stud receiver in Anquan Boldin (if he can stay healthy). And don’t get me started on their defense. The Ravens added Sergio Kindle and Terrence Cody in the 2010 Draft, two first-round caliber players that should thrive in Baltimore’s 3-4 scheme. I like the Ravens a lot,and wouldn’t be too surprised to see Ray Lewis hoisting that Lomardi Trophy for the second time. Odds to win it all: 19 to 2
3. New England Patriots
Don’t let last year’s putrid playoff performance fool you. Despite what you may read, the Patriots are not declining. Bill Belichick is still the coach he’s always been. Tom Brady isn’t a step slower. Yes, Randy Moss is a year older, but this is a contract year. And we all know what that means. New England’s defense may be young, but they’re good, and they’re fast. We know how good this team can be. I think they’ll be that good in 2010, and maybe even better. Brady has a real good shot at a fourth ring. Odds to win it all: 19 to 2
2. New Orleans Saints
Sorry Saints fans, but I can’t put your team first. I just can’t. History tells us that in today’s NFL, a repeat is nearly impossible.Truth of the matter is I love this team. Drew Brees is an elite QB who can succeed with any group of receivers. That’s not a shot at New Orleans’ receiving corps, but does one guy emerge from that group as something truly special? Didn’t think so. New Orleans does have a strong 1-2 punch at running back though, with Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush. And New Orleans’coaching staff might be the best in the NFL. I would love to see them prove me wrong, but I don’t see the Saints repeating this year. A Super Bowl berth, though, doesn’t seem too far fetched. Odds to win it all: 8 to 1
1. Indianapolis Colts
Quick, who’s the NFL’s best quarterback? If you said anyone other than Peyton Manning, you’re kidding yourself. QBs handle the football more than anyone else on the field, so I’ll put my money on the team with the best one. I put my money on Peyton last year and it didn’t exactly work out,but I’ve still got faith. Nobody works harder than Peyton. Nobody leads better than Peyton. But most importantly, nobody cares more than Peyton. The rest of the offense is pretty loaded, too. Peyton has two solid veteran pass-catchers in Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne, as well as a couple of talented up-and-comers in Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie. Peyton's backfield (Joseph Addai and Donald Brown) is better than you think. So is the defense. But it all starts with Peyton, and come Super Bowl XLV, I think it will end with him, too. Odds to win it all: 7 to 1
OK, so my thoughts. I think in the top ten, I almost agree. Jets are ranked too high, as are the Patriots. In my opinion, the boat is sailing on the Patriots. They may have another playoff appearance, but I think playoff wins are going... going... I would have put them fifth TOPS. Important, I do agree with the top two. I like the Colts and the Saints in the top two spots, however, I honestly think the two can be interchangable. I would have put the 'Boys at third, bumped up the Vikes to fourth... and I do expect Farve to play and I do expect him to do exceptionally well, as we expect Farve to always perform to the Farve level. The only knock I have against Farve is that he tends to not just play football, but play with people's minds on whether he will or won't play. Man up and give an answer straight out.
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