Playoff Game #5: Mavericks at Nuggets

I realized that this might be the last time I get to do this (Re: McNugget Logo above), so I didn't want to blow this opportunity.

You want to know something? Dirk has heart. He has a hunger that the rest of the team doesn't share. Don't get me wrong, the rest of the team do have hunger, but they don't have the hunger that Dirk has right now... the hunger that when down 3-0, you put the team on your back and push them to another level of playing. Dirk has that heart. He has that hunger.

With the Mavericks headed to Denver for another elimination game, I am certain that the Mavs have to grab that hunger that Dirk has right now, or they come home for the off-season. I don't know how long Dirk can carry this team like he did in Game 4. But it win or die time for the Mavericks. Dirk has been here in this situation and done well before...

Anyway, the Nuggets have a good game plan. They have pushed the Mavs, owned the Mavs, and generally had their way through the whole series. Even in Game 4, the Nuggets were right there.

Forecast: Yes, I didn't really delve into stats on this post. And with that statement, I mean that I didn't give one single stat in the above text. I really don't think that it is necessary. The Mavericks dropped their first SEVEN games this season/post-season to the Nuggets. Let's just say the clock is ticking. Miracles do happen. Mavericks proved to themselves they can beat the Nuggets. It's just everybody else I'm concerned about. Denver wins the series tonight with a 112-105 score. Johnny Out.

Home Court

Playoff Game #3: Mavericks vs Nuggets

I haven't covered the Mavs/Nuggets games yet. And now that Dirk sent his fiance to the slammer, I think Game 3 is going to have a little extra buzz to it. It seems that the Nuggets are the favorites by far. What does it mean? Well, it boils down to the record, the margin of victory, and so on... And the fact the Mavs lost six in a row to the Nuggets (0-4 in regular season and 0-2 in the playoffs), I would say the Mavs are due. And rightfully so, they should be the "underdog".
Of fourteen predictions... the Mavericks have a 14.3% chance to win this series. And to be honest, I am a little surprised that none of the fourteen predicted a Nuggett sweep.
The one with the "X" are the underdog in the starting matchup. I was actually torn between Kidd and Billups. Kidd is much better than Billups in a great deal of ways, but Billups gets his points.

Forecast: Mavericks win this one 98-93. Why? They cancelled the pre-nup.

Home Court

Game 23: Mavericks vs. Nuggets

The Nuggets don't look like the team I used laugh at back in the day... of course, these Mavericks aren't the team I cringed at in the 90s either.

Dallas Mavericks Player Stats 08-09

Name	Dirk Nowitzki	Eric Dampier	Jason Terry	Jason Kidd
Points Per Game	26.3	5.4	20.8	9.7
Rebounds Per Game	9.2	7.5	2.7	6.7
Assists Per Game	2.5	1.0	3.9	8.5
Blocks Per Game	0.82	1.09	0.27	0.55

The Mavericks, well, Dirk anyway, are pretty hot. Terry is also contributing pretty good these days. Being that the Mavericks are 5-1 on this seven game homestand, the Nuggets will have their hands full.

Denver Nuggets Player Stats 08-09

Name	Carmelo Anthony	Chauncey Billups	Nene Hilario	Kenyon Martin
Points Per Game	21.2	18.9	14.4	12.9
Rebounds Per Game	8.2	2.2	7.1	6.5
Assists Per Game	3.7	7.0	1.3	2.2
Blocks Per Game	0.38	0.26	1.57	1.47

Speaking about having your hands full, these Nuggets will not go down easily. Josh Howard is not coming back anytime soon, so the rumors say.
Forecast: I am not sure about this one... if Josh Howard was in the lineup, I would be a great deal more confident in the Mavs favor, however, I do not expect him to play. And with that, I actually think the Nuggets will take this one. Score: 105-100.

Home Court

Game 5: Mavs at Nuggets

The Dallas Mavericks come into this game riding high. They've just handed the Spurs an 0-3 record with a tromping in San Antonio. Denver just made a big trade and will get to show off tonight against Golden State just how good the trade they made really is... and when you give away AI, well, I personally think it's not that great of a trade, but time is the telling factor in any of these things.

In the NBA, however, you expect results immediately. We'll see.

I definitely like Jason Terry as a starter. Are they melding under the new coach? It's starting to look that way. And if they find the groove that works for them, well, then watch out...

Mavs grab 55 wins or more? Yes.

Home court in round one? Yes.

Western Conference Finals? I won't say just yet.

Nuggets looking at the lottery? Yes.

I had the pleasure of watching last night's Mavericks game. They way they were playing just seemed like they were relaxed and focused. And if they continue that throught the rest of this season, I wouldn't rule out 60 wins or more and a trip to the NBA Finals. I simply wouldn't. I do not expect them to play the rest of the season this well, but they have done that before... they have the talent. They can make it happen. Carlisle is looking like a genius.

Mavs to Watch:

• Jason Terry: 17 PPG; 4 APG
• Dirk Nowitzki: 23.8 PPG; 6.5 RPG; .625 3P%
• Jason Kidd: 8.5 PPG; 8.8 APG; 6.5 RPG
• Josh Howard: 18.5 PPG; 7.8 RPG; .517 FG%

Nuggets to Watch:

• Chauncey Billups: 12.5 PPG; 7.5 APG; 5 RBP
• Kenyon Martin: 16.3 PPG; 8 RPG
• JR Smith: 15.7 PPG; 6.3 RPG
• Carmelo Anthony: 13 PPG; 6 APG

Granted, the Nuggets numbers will change tonight... I may come back and update them, however, I am not holding my breath on that... this still gives a good snapshot of what they are capable of doing to an opponent. They have 6 players who average double digit points per game, which means they have a lot of tools available to them.

Forecast: I like the Mavericks in this one, and I am basing this off of how the Mavericks played against the Spurs. If they continue to play as a team and hustle like they did on Tuesday night, then not many teams can beat this Dallas team. Whatever heart the Mavericks have on any given night is going to determine how they finish the night out. Right now, the Mavericks have a lot of heart... And they will win this one 106-94.

Home Plate

The Dallas Mavericks vs. The Denver Nuggets

The Dallas Mavericks vs. The Denver Nuggets

My score was a "little" off on the previous game, but Dirk wasn't playing - so I have an excuse. Still, the Mavs won, and that says something about the stardom about of Josh Howard. The Mavs have now clinched their division and have a magic number of two to clinch the conference (special thanks to the Spurs beating the Suns last night). Dallas has a record of 62-12 and to catch 70, would need to win the final 8 - which is possible, but most likely not going to happen due to resting of players once the conference is clinched. Denver is currently ranked 7th in the conference with a record of 38-36, a half game behind the Lakers and a game ahead of the Clippers.

Dirk will return to the lineup tonight in Denver. The Mavs played Denver on December 9th and won 105-90. They played again on New Years Eve and won 89-85. They played again on February 24th and won 115-95. A win tonight would be a sweep of the season series for the Mavs. The average margin of victory for the Mavs is 13 points against the Nuggets this season.

• Dirk Nowitzki has averaged 28 points, 6.5 assists, and 10 rebounds against Denver.
• Josh Howard has averaged 28.3 points, 2 blocks, and 10.3 rebounds against Denver.
• Jason Terry has averaged 18.3 points, 4 assists, and 1.67 steals against Denver.
• Jerry Stackhouse has averaged 16 points, 6 assists, and 3 rebounds against Denver.

Those four alone should put up some numbers, actually they add up to 90 points, 23 rebounds, 27 assists, 2 blocks, and 2 steals. I haven't considered Devin Harris, another good scorer on the Mavs team. And then you have Dampier and Diop, who manage rebounds and blocks.

Now, let's look at the Denver Nuggets. We already know the history of this team vs. the Mavs, as shown above. I guess it is time to evaluate the players.

• Carmelo Anthony has averaged 26 points, 5 rebounds, and 3 assists against Dallas.
• Allen Iverson has averaged 27 points, 6 rebounds, and 4.5 steals against Dallas.
• Marcus Camby has averaged 12 points, 13.7 rebounds, and 4.7 assists against Dallas.
• J.R. Smith has averaged 18 points, 4 rebounds, and 2 assists against Dallas.

These four, added together, combine for 83 points, 29 rebounds, 10 assists, and 5 steals. That would make for a great game - but it just goes to show who holds the overall edge. Dallas.

Forecast: Dallas completes the sweep. Bring your broom. 98-92.

Tuesday and Wednesday

Tuesday, November 1st

NBA
Mavs (0-0) vs. Suns (0-0)
Wow-E-Wow! The season begins. This one starts in the land of the hot sun. And with Nash attack, Captain MVP, who is going to take this one? Well, for the NBA title, I don’t there is much doubt that the Spurs are just in wait for the trophy, but getting there could be fun to watch. Stranger things, am I right? So, let’s see. Suns will try to score a ton of points. Dallas is going to try to slow things down. Both went 6-2 in pre. Amare is out for 4 months. That could be the edge Dallas needs, but I am skeptical at best on this one. Amare was the Suns leading scorer last year. And he is gone. Nash is a magician and this is his former team… Dirk is looking for redemption. AJ feels confident, but he is the coach and that is his job. I… will say the intangibles go to Dallas, but I am scared to say it. Mavs take this one on a squeaker, score: 95-92

Spurs (0-0) vs. Nuggets (0-0)
Spurs: doesn’t that say it all? This team could beat any Olympic dream team any day… OK, maybe not the first dream team, but they could give them a run for their money. Spurs win this one: 1,000,000-95. (Reality, 99-92)

Wednesday, November 2nd

NBA
Mavs (1-0) vs. Jazz (0-0)
Well, the Jazz just don’t play. 2-5 in pre is definitely nothing to brag about. In a word: rebuild. For the Mavs: cakewalk. Prediction: Mavs take it, 105-89.

Rockets (0-0) vs. Kings (0-1)
This should be a good game. I like Yo-Yo. I mean, Yao-Yao. Do you get the Ming of what I am saying? I mean the meaning? This is the opener for the Rockets. The Kings second game on the road, so with the Rockets at home against a back to back Kings, it could be interesting. Intangibles definitely go to the Rockets. Well, the Sheriff (Shareef) is going to be in town, and the Kings are picked for tops in their division. I’m not sold on it yet, though. They will make the playoffs, but won’t go far in my book. Being this is the first for Houston, home court, Kings going back to back road nights, Rockets will win this one. Score: 91-87.

NHL
Stars (6-4-1) vs. Kings (8-4-0)
The Kings play hockey, too? OK, let’s do it again… the Sheriff… oh wait, the LA Kings… gotcha. Again, should be a good game between these two, if you like hockey. Not a big fan, but doing this blog, I am gaining interest… LA is 6-3 at home, Stars are 3-1 on the road. Stars are better away from here… interesting. LA and Dallas are first and second, respectfully, in their division. Stars, even with a winning record, have given up more points than scored, whereas LA is killer. They have scored 11 more goals than their opponents. So, I don’t know if I really need to dig for more stats. That tells me pretty much the goods on this game. Kings take this one. Score: 4-2.