Game 80: Stars at Wild

Yeah, it is raining on the Stars. They will not make the playoffs as they are currently seeded 12th in their conference with three games to play. Since this game really has no meaning for the Stars (let's just be honest, OK?), they will more than likely just play their 60 minutes and go home. Minnesota is 37-33-9 (or 37-42, adjusted) and the Stars are 35-34-10 (or 35-44 adjusted). Both teams are still in a hunt for postseason, but the Stars, 12th in the conference, are all but eliminated. The Wild trail 8th place Nashville by three points. The Stars need to win their last three games, and need loses by Nashville, St. Louis, Minnesota, and Edmonton to catch 8th place. Not likely. In fact, the Blues and Predators need to lose their last three games. And it wouldn't hurt for the Oilers and Wild to do the same... again, not likely.

The reality is that both the Wild and Stars are stinking it up. This game tonight will not be defined by the greatness of one team over the other, but by who doesn't stink it up the worst.

Forecast: The Wild doesn't stink it up nearly as bad as the Stars tonight. It is probably due to the Wild playing at home. Stars get officially eliminated from the playoffs with a score of 4-2, Wild.

Home Ice

Game 57: Stars vs Oilers

I'm just going to jump right into things...

Dallas Stars Player Stats 08-09

Name	Mike Ribeiro	Loui Eriksson	Mike Modano	James Neal
Goals	13	27	14	18
Assists	37	16	23	11
Points	50	43	37	29
+/-	-7	+12	+2	-5

Brad Richards is out for six to eight weeks with a wrist injury. Brendon Morrow could return in the final week if there is a miracle. He says that it would be more likely to return during the playoffs, if the Stars make the playoffs. They are seeded sixth right now, but play an Oiler team who is seeded eighth currently. Of course, the absense of Richards changes the top four, adding Neal into the picture. Still not a bad group of guys.

Oilers Player Stats 08-09

Name	Ales Hemsky	Shawn Horcoff	Sheldon Souray	Tom Gilbert
Goals	18	13	15	3
Assists	32	25	21	31
Points	50	38	36	34
+/-	+2	+8	-6	+5

The Oilers are 2-1 this season against the Stars with Sheldon Souray leading the pack with 6 points. He has one goal and five assists. The Stars will need to watch him closely to change the trend around. The Stars won the first meeting between the two teams and the lost the next two leading into this game.

Goalie Comparrison

Name	Games (Starts)	Record	GAA	SV%
Marty Turco	53 (53)	27-19-7	2.81	.897
Dwayne Roloson	40 (40)	20-14-6	2.72	.916

Roloson is 1-0 against the Stars this season. The Stars won every match against the Oilers last season, according to ESPN.com. This game is the final meeting between the two teams in the regular season. It should be noted that Turco has still been playing good of late. Forecast: The Richards loss is puzzling. The Stars won against Columbus without Richards, but still, you would prefer to have Richards and Morrow on the ice if they were available. The Stars have responded well without key players. This game does have a direct impact on the standing, just like the previous game. I want to go with the Stars, but my gut tells me otherwise. Oilers take this away from the Stars, 3-2 in overtime. Johnny Out.

Home Ice

Game 33: Brahmas at Oilers

The Brahmas are first in their division. Nice. Tulsa is last in their division. Doubly nice. It should be an easy (or at least easier) game for the Brahmas.

Brahma Stats 08-09

Name	Jordan Cameron	Scott Sheppard	Grant Jacobsen	Pete Rouleau
Goals	13	14	11	9
Assists	18	16	19	14
Points	31	30	30	23
+/-	+10	+8	+8	-2

The Brahmas are 20-9-3 (or 20-12, adjusted) and have a two point lead over Laredo. Three of the top four players are positive and Rouleau is just two points under. Not bad at all. The Brahmas are 1-1 against the Oilers this season.

Oiler Stats 08-09

Name	Jeff Christian	Michel Beausoleil	Brendon Hodge	Jason Lawmaster
Goals	15	12	12	6
Assists	30	27	20	11
Points	45	39	32	17
+/-	-4	+3	-4	-7

What I can't believe is how the Oilers have a guy with 45 pionts and is negative by four. Tulsa is 9-17-4 (or 9-21, adjusted) and in the CHL, they are the second worst team, being only better than Amarillo by two points.

Goalie Comparrison

Name	Games	Record	GAA	SV%
Brett Jaeger	23	14-4-3	2.37	.924
Kevin St. Pierre	23	6-12-4	3.80	.900

Jaeger is better than St. Pierre. His GAA is by far better and the save percentage is much better, too. This is how you have a guy with 45 points and is still in the negative.
Forecast: Brahmas take out the Oilers with a 5-1 margin.

Home Ice

Game 37: Stars at Oilers

Want some good news? The Stars went 8-4-1 in December. The Stars lost to the Oilers in Edmonton on December 3rd... a month ago. It really looks like this team has changed since the start of the season. The Stars are now 16-15-5 (or 16-20, adjusted). The Oilers are 17-16-3 (or 17-19, adjusted). The Oilers are 4-5-1 in their last ten games, including 0-2 in their last two games.

Dallas Stars Player Stats 08-09

Name	Brad Richards	Mike Ribeiro	Loui Eriksson	Mike Modano
Goals	10	6	20	12
Assists	24	26	8	12
Points	34	32	28	24
+/-	-6	-4	+5	0

I like the Stars. Deep down I think they can win. And oddly enough, even though they have a slight edge in performance and a disadvantage in the (+/-), I think they are entering this game as the better team. They are on the way up...

Edmonton Oilers Player Stats 08-09

Name	Ales Hemsky	Shawn Harcoff	Sheldon Souray	Lubomir Visnovsky
Goals	10	10	11	6
Assists	25	16	15	17
Points	35	26	26	23
+/-	+1	+2	0	+7

The Stars top four are better than the Oilers top four... with the exception of the (+/-), but the Oilers are on the way down and the Stars on moving up. Both are technically tied for 11th in the West and both have 37 points each.

Goalie Comparrison

Name	Games (Starts)	Record	GAA	SV%
Marty Turco	33 (33)	15-13-5	3.19	.882
Dwayne Roloson	20 (19)	9-6-3	2.71	.918

Oilers have the better goalie. Turco has been playing a bit better... I still give the edge to the Oilers.
Forecast: I'm going to go against the grain a little and say that the Stars will take this one with a score of 3-1.

Home Ice

Game 25: Stars vs. Oilers

The Stars are starting to put something together. Am I buying into the hype that they are going to do well this season? No. Still, I am a bit surprised at who they have won against... and with that in mind, they then lose to teams that are lowly. Any given time, a team can win. Weird, yet true.

Stars to Watch:

• Brad Richards: 21 points; 15 assists (0)
• Mike Ribeiro: 20 points; 17 assists (-4)
• Loui Eriksson: 20 points; 12 goals (7)
• Mike Modano: 17 points (-1)
• Marty Turco: 8-10-4 with a 3.48 GAA and a .874 SV%

With Eriksson having a +7 when he is on the ice, you want to keep him out there as long as possible... wouldn't it be nice to have him out there for 60 minutes? Yeah, it would be cool until he falls over from exhaustion. Here's a good note: Stars have won three of their last four.

Oilers to Watch:

• Ales Hemsky: 24 points; 17 assists (0)
• Sheldon Souray: 19 points; 11 assists (6)
• Shawn Horcoff: 16 points; 10 assists (3)
• Tom Gilbert: 12 points; 10 assists (2)
• Dwayne Roloson: 4-4-2 with a 2.82 GAA and a .916 SV%

I'm not sure who will be the Oilers starting goalie. Roloson has started just under half the games... Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers has started 5 games and has done the best between the three goalie tandem.

Well, with sports statistical analysis, you are not supposed to let your personal feelings get in the way of who will win any given game. I tend to do that with the Rangers, actually, I do it a lot with the Texas Rangers... and right now, I am letting my frustration with the Stars cloud my thoughts of who will win. Forecast: I have posted for the last six Stars games, and I am beginning to feel like I am getting this hockey thing down. It doesn't mean I am an expert on hockey, to say the least, but I know enough now to know that I enjoy it. What I didn't say above is that the Oilers have lost three of their last four, with their last game against the Stars. The Stars are playing two days in a row, so they have a fatigue factor. Oilers win this one due to a higher energy level and better players. Score: 3-2.

Home Ice

Game 23: Stars vs. Oilers

This has been one of those series that the Oilers fans love to hate. They probably have an angst against Dallas that just goes on and on and on... and it could stay like that for a while. I hope it does... it makes the game just a bit more fun when it is a rivalry.

Dallas is 7-11-4 (7-15, adjusted) while Edmonton is 10-10-2 (10-12, adjusted). Dallas is dead last in the Western Conference and it would appear that pending a miracle, the Stars are out of this thing. Happy Thanksgiving, right? And if you consider the point system (which is dumb), Dallas is the worst team in the NHL right now. If you want to go by Johnny's Adjusted System, Tampa Bay is worse than the Stars... and statistically, they are worse than the Stars. After all, Tampa Bay has fewer wins and more loses... wouldn't that make them worse? You would think that, but the NHL still is holding on to some stupid things that allow worse teams have higher standing... of course, we are only disputing last and second to last in the NHL... so who really cares, right?

Stars to Watch:

• Mike Ribeiro: 19 points; 17 assists (-4)
• Brad Richards: 19 points; 13 assists (-1)
• Mike Modano: 15 points (-1)
• Loui Eriksson: 18 points; 11 goals (6)
• Marty Turco: 6-10-4 with a 3.64 GAA and a .866 SV%

Turco's numbers keep getting worse every time I post a Stars forecast. How much longer will he be goalie before someone else gets a chance?

Oilers to Watch:

• Ales Hemsky: 23 points; 17 assists (0)
• Sheldon Souray: 16 points (4)
• Shawn Horcoff: 15 points (3)
• Tom Gilbert: 12 points; 10 assists (0)
• Dwayne Roloson: 4-4-2 with a 2.82 GAA and a .916 SV%

Well, the Oilers have the better team statistically, the better record, and the angst against the Stars... what more do you need? Forecast: Again, no rocket science here. The Oilers are going to take this one, hands down... or up, if you so choose... look for a score of 4-2.

Home Ice

Sports Picks up to Halloween

Sports Picks up to Halloween

Friday
Stars (5-3-1) vs. Oilers (3-6-1)
Stars beat Oilers earlier this month in Edmonton. Look to see them do it again but in Dallas. Stars 4-2.

Saturday
Stars (5-3-1) vs. Coyotes (4-6-1)
Should be a good game. Dallas will be playing a back-to-back and Tyson Nash looks really good. Coyotes and Stars tie: 3-3

FC Dallas (13-10-11) vs. Rapids (13-7-13)
The records are actually Wins-Draws-Loses, by the way. In the point system, Dallas is ahead of them by 3 points. They are playing here, and honestly, the Rapids just stink on the road (3-4-9) with a winning percentage of .313. Dallas, however, has a winning percentage of .656 at home. Dallas is going to tear them a new head: 3-1. Yes, that’s tearing a new head in the world of Soccer.

Sunday
Cowboys (4-3) vs. Cardinals (2-4)
As far as points scored, Dallas doesn’t look all that bad. But, I am not all that impressed personally. The reason the ‘boys have won what they have is because the defense is stellar. The defense, however, seems to give up with the remainder of the 4th quarter to go… it varies game to game. I think that Dallas’ offense will be average at best during this game and Arizona will be held down a bit. Josh McCown has shown spark with a 2-1 mark in his last three and the game the Cards lost was by 4 to Carolina (4-2). I think if Arizona is in the game going into the final quarter, they realistically have a chance. And looking at the Cowboys season, they more than likely will be very much into the game at that point in time. The problem with Arizona is the rushing game. Arizona has not had a leading rusher over 54 yards. So the Cowboys will be thinking pass on just about every down and that will hurt Arizona’s chances in the long “run.” (Pun not intended, but in a way, it is) Cowboys take this one: 20-17.

Panthers (4-2) vs. Vikings (2-4)
In what is shaping up to be a very good division for the NFC South, Carolina stands as third. Delhomme, Foster, and Peppers are on the injured list. Delhomme is the one I am concerned about. Vikes are 0-3 on the road and Cats are 2-1 at home. Cats are coming off a well needed bye, and that will give them the well needed edge. Culpepper throws an interception 6% of the time. So, for every 20 passes, 1 is a pick. For every touchdown he throws, he connects twice to his opponent. Panthers 24-20.

Bears (3-3) vs. Lions (3-3)
The battle for the top. At least in their division. Chicago gives up only 11 points a game. Bears, however, are 0-2 on the road this year. The Liars, I mean Lions, are 2-1 at home. Where is Barry? On average, the Bears give up 15 points a game on the road. The two have played already this year, Bears destroying Detroit 38-6. Well, I don’t see that this time, but I do see the Bears taking this one. Look for Jones to be Barry re-incarnated. The guy has 3 games already over 130 yards! I think he takes that Pink Floyd song a little seriously (Run! Run! Run…). The thing, though is the Bears passing game… or lack there of. Bears win this one: 20-10.

Sunday Night - picks from Sat and Sun

Saturday

Stars vs. Avalanche – preseason? Yes it is. After missing a few decades, Hockey is back in business. Who will win this? Who cares, its preseason. We are just interested in who is going to have the jersey pulled over their head and beaten to a pulp. Will I watch? No, I will be at the Ranger’s game. Would I watch if I wasn’t at the game? Nope. I watch hockey in the paper only. Well, maybe once in a while… but I’m not one to plan my day around it. I think a 1-1 tie on this, just for grins.

Sunday

Stars vs. Oilers - again? But they just played yesterday. I think 2-1 win for the Stars on this. Maybe I might find a nut on this, who knows.

Panthers vs. Patriots – Patriots have won 3 Supers in the last 4 years, including the last two. Panthers, well, as much as I like the mighty, mighty boss cats, I think are a little more than out-matched. Patriots over the Cats 38-14.

Bears vs. Lions – Lions and Tigers and Bears, oh my. Lions surprise with a slaughter of Green Bay in week 1. Can the bad news Bears step up? They would need a “little” more offense. Top rusher for the Bears in week 1?: Mr. Jones had 31 yards on the ground and averaged 2.1 per rush. Well, the defense for the Bears looks great. But so does the Lions. Well, let’s look at it like this, if the Bears hold the Lions to 0 points, I think they may have a chance. But I think the Bears will step up some to the challenge, but it won’t be enough. Lions over the Bears in a triple overtime thriller (just kidding) 24-10.

I just wanted to show you that I did pick, but was unable to post due to not having every game I wanted done. This is what I had by Friday. I missed on the Panthers and the Bears. Oh well. I will post again tomorrow morning/afternoon. Laters.