Wednesday, January 14, 2009

AFC Championship Game

The Ravens are one of two #6 seeds in a Championship this weekend. Could it be a Super Bowl filled with two #6 seeds? And it just scratches my head to see a #4 seed hosting a conference championship. It's just weird, yet intriguing. The Steelers won both meetings this season, the first in overtime and the second by a 13-9 margin on Dec 14th.


Quarterback Comparison
NameQB RatingComp-AttComp %YardsTD-IntFumbles

Joe Flacco

80.3

257-428

60.0%

2,971

14-12

11

Ben Roethlisberger

80.1

281-469

59.9%

3,301

17-15

4


Flacco is 20-45 in the postseason with one touchdown and no interceptions. He has 296 yards in two playoff games. Roethlisberger went 17-26 against the Chargers and has a 98.4 QB rating in the playoffs.

Rushing Comparison
NameCarriesYardsTDsCatches

Yards

TDs

Le'Ron McClain

232

902

10

19

123

1

Willie Parker

210

791

5

3

13

0


Parker rushed for 146 yards in one game thus far into the playoffs. If the Ravens are going to win, they do need to stopthe run enough to force a passing game. They have the pass coverage that can grab the well needed turnover.


Receiving Comparison
NameCatchesYardsTDsFumbles

Derrick Mason

80

1,037

5

2

Mark Clayton

41

695

3

0

Todd Heap

35

403

3

1

Hines Ward

81

1,043

7

1

Santonio Holmes

55

821

5

2

Nate Washington

40

631

3

0


Hines Ward has 70 yards receiving and Heath Miller has a touchdown and three catches.


Defense Comparison
NameTacklesSacksInts-TDDeflections

Ray Lewis

117

3.5

3-0

9

Ed Reed

41

1.0

9-2

16

Terrell Suggs

69

8.0

2-2

9

James Farrior

133

3.5

0-0

5

James Harrison

101

16.0

1-0

3

Troy Polamalu

73

0.0

7-0

17


Ed Reed has two interceptions in the post-season with one returned for a touchdown. Suggs has two sacks. The Raven defense has a total of five interceptions this post-season. Larry Foote has an interception, the only one for the Steelers thus far in the post-season. LaMarr Woodley has two sacks.
Forecast: I don't want to pick the home team for the sake of picking the home team. The Ravens have a good thing going, and so it would be just as easy to pick them over the Steelers as it would be the Steelers over the Ravens. I like the Ravens pass defense. And even though the Ravens have lost twice to the Steelers already this season, the have the better pass defense... and they lost both of those games very closely. And so I pick the Ravens to upset the Steelers with a close game here, as well. Score: 16-13.

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