Blake Beavan Catchup

5/13/09
High-A: at Bakersfield 6, Modesto 5
Win: Beavan (2-4, 5.40)
Save: Young (1, 2.70)

The Blaze pinned six runs on Colorado’s Bruce Billings in three innings. Two-run homers from Mauro Gomez (#5) and Joey Butler (#3), a 3-for-5 from Renny Osuna, and two walks and a double from Davis Stoneburner led the way.

Blake Beavan pitched well again, limiting the Nuts to four runs (three earned) in seven innings on seven hits, a walk, and three strikeouts. Another unearned run scored in the 8th to cut Bakersfield’s lead to 6-5, but Corey Young pitched two scoreless frames for the save. Bakersfield (14-18) has won five of six. Today they’ll resume the “power outage” game before playing the regularly scheduled contest.

5/8/09
High-A: at Bakersfield 12, San Jose 3
Win: Beavan (1-4, 5.73)

Blake Beavan went the distance for the first time as a professional. Facing a team averaging 5.7 runs per game, Beavan limited the Giants to four hits, a walk, and a hit-by-pitch while striking out five. He threw between 104-107 pitches (reports vary). San Jose hit 14 grounders, ten fly balls, two line drives, and two pop-ups. Beavan also picked off a runner at first. The three runs he allowed were unquestionably unearned, the result of two errors and a passed ball.

Mitch Moreland walked, doubled and singled twice. Since beginning the season with one single in ten at-bats, he’s hitting .368/.438/.674. Mauro Gomez hit a three-run homer, his 4th, and IF Davis Stoneburner hit a granny., his 1st long ball of the season. Stoneburner also committed his 6th and 7th errors.

OF Tim Smith had to leave in the 5th when a warmup throw caromed off a sprinkler head and smacked him in the eye. Hopefully it’s a minor injury.

Elvis Andrus Elvis Andrus Play

5/3/09
High-A: Bakersfield 4, at Stockton 10
Loss: Beavan (0-4, 7.88)

Against a team averaging 3.5 runs per game in the hitter-happy Cal League, Blake Beavan set career lowlights for innings pitches (2.2) and runs allowed (8). Beavan primary peripherals are actually respectable despite his 7.88 ERA: rates of 2.8% for homers, 6% for walks and 19% for strikeouts. Those are roughly comparable to his 2008 but with a very slightly higher walk rate and a significantly improved SO rate.

So why the five-run jump in his ERA? 1) Last year he held opponents to a miniscule .255 batting average on balls in play (BABIP; that is, excluding homers and strikeouts). In the Majors, pitchers have little control over that rate relative to other peripherals. That’s also largely true in the minors, though you’ll find the best pitchers tended to perform better-than-average in that respect. So, call Beavan’s .255 a mix of luck and skill. In 2009, his BABIP is .368. Huge, huge difference. The luck pendulum has swung the other direction, as it will. 2) Those hits are coming in bunches. In 2008, Beavan stranded 78% of his baserunners. In 2009, it’s 46%, similar to how Luis Mendoza performed in Texas last year.

Beavan’s Fielding-Independent Pitching, which mimics ERA but completely excludes hit rates, was 3.98 in 2008 and is 4.46 in 2009. Considering the difference in the Midwest and Cal leagues, it’s safe to say the primary statistical difference between his 2008 and 2009 is a mostly a function of luck. That’s not an excuse for getting pounded last night, but it does portend upcoming improvement. He’s not this bad.

Zach Phillips (2.1 IP, 1 SO) and Ryan Tatusko (2.0 IP, 1 H, 4 SO) held the Ports scoreless for a long while, but no comeback was forthcoming. Engel Beltre went 2-3 but was caught stealing in the 5th down by six runs. In the 7th, he was replaced. Matt Lawson (2-5, double) and Jose Felix (2-3, double, walk) fueled the offense.

Home Plate