ALDS: Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays (Game 5)

Wow, I post and the Rangers win. I don't post and the Rangers don't win. I think I have learned my lesson.

Cliff Lee was 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA in five playoff starts for the Phillies last year. He's the only one of the Rangers' four starters with postseason experience. He's 6-5 with a 2.87 ERA in 13 career starts vs. the Rays (3-2 with a 3.86 ERA at Tropicana).

David Price is a career 0-2 against the Rangers in four starts. He's given up a whopping 16 runs in 19.1 innings, giving him a 7.45 ERA against Texas. He's also walked 15 but has fanned 19. At home this year, he is 9-2 in 16 starts with a 1.92 ERA. He only started one game against the Rangers this season, a no decision, and tossed six solid innings giving up two runs.

Postseason for Price hasn't been bad, as he got some work in 2008 in the postseason. He is 1-0, but hasn't started in the postseason. He has five games, totaling 5.2 innings with work against the Phillies and Boston (his win was a World Series victory).

That's what I said going into the first game of the series. I expect  pretty much of the same for this game, a tight fight for dominance with the Rangers coming out on top.

Forecast: Rangers win this one in a tighter game that in the first game, expect this to be decided, not by Price, but Lee to get the win with a relief pitcher taking the loss. Score 3-2, Rangers.

Post-Season Thoughts

American League Divisional Series:

Yankees over Twins in four games.

Rangers over Rays in five games.

ALCS:

Yankees over Rangers in five games.

National League Divisional Series:

Phillies over Reds in four games.

Giants over Braves in four games.

NLCS:

Giants over Phillies in six games.

World Series:

Yankees over Giants in six games.

Divisional Series Roadblocks: The Rangers' starting pitchers have to be better in the postseason than they were during the regular season, when they ranked 25th overall in quality starts.

Can Cliff Lee out-duel Rays pitcher David Price? He'll have to, against a Rays team that ranks third in the league in runs scored.

ALCS Pitfalls: It would be much of the same for the Rangers in a series against the Twins or Yankees. Minnesota and New York absolutely rake at the plate, and a lack of quality starting pitching is a feast in the eyes of these team's hitters.

In all likelihood, Cliff Lee will have to pitch on two days rest, and give two stellar outings.

World Series Issues: I know it seems redundant—and it is—but pitching is the key to any World Series championship team. Lee and the rest of the Rangers staff will have to step up, or Josh Hamilton better bring the lumber.

I’ve talked extensively this year about the conundrum of Lee still not having a long term gig with anyone, even after being traded to Texas.

But it would make sense for Texas to keep Lee, especially if he does for the Rangers what he did for the Phillies.

Furthermore, fellow flame-thrower Rich Harden has basically been a bust, so there is plenty of room to think that they could ink Lee for two years, drop Harden, and perhaps make a move on FA Jorge De La Rosa.

OK, I admit that the Rockies will make De La Rosa a priority this offseason; but hey, anything can happen.

-Bleacher Report

Quick Picks

Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays: I like Wilson over Shields. Rangers win it, 7-3.

Atlanta Braves at SF Giants: I don't know, my gut says Braves in the series, but the Giants have a few things going for them. Off the hip, I will say Braves, 4-2.

NY Yankees at Minnesota Twins: I like the Yankees in this series, but the Twins have some moxie, really good on the bases, so they can create runs that wouldn't normally be there. I say Twins even up the series here, 6-4.

Game is starting, gotta go!

ALDS: Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays (Game 1)

The Rangers return to the post-season for the first time since 1999 and have pitching that can make them stay in the playoffs for many seasons to come. A couple of things should stay in place, with one of those starting in Game 1 against the Rays.

Cliff Lee was 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA in five playoff starts for the Phillies last year. He's the only one of the Rangers' four starters with postseason experience. He's 6-5 with a 2.87 ERA in 13 career starts vs. the Rays (3-2 with a 3.86 ERA at Tropicana).

David Price is a career 0-2 against the Rangers in four starts. He's given up a whopping 16 runs in 19.1 innings, giving him a 7.45 ERA against Texas. He's also walked 15 but has fanned 19. At home this year, he is 9-2 in 16 starts with a 1.92 ERA. He only started one game against the Rangers this season, a no decision, and tossed six solid innings giving up two runs.

Postseason for Price hasn't been bad, as he got some work in 2008 in the postseason. He is 1-0, but hasn't started in the postseason. He has five games, totaling 5.2 innings with work against the Phillies and Boston (his win was a World Series victory).

Forecast: First off, even though we are playing a really tough team in the Tampa Bay Rays, I still pick the Rangers to win this series in four games, and that is taking into account that we haven't done well against the Rays this season and we haven't play well in day games. What I am taking into account, the intangible difference, is this team is healthy and they have a new found zeal in being in the playoffs. The Rays have been there, done that, and I just don't feel the excitement from the Rays that the Rangers have right now. I like the Rangers in this one, and I think this one will be REALLY close, as Price is better than his numbers would suggest. Rangers win it 3-2. Neftali gets the save.

Texas Rangers (82-63) at Seattle Mariners (55-91)

The Rangers are coming into Seattle with a seven game winning streak, looking to make it eight against the Mariners. Texas will clinch the division on the road, as it is currently 10 games over the A's and the magic number is at 8.

What I like about right now with the Rangers is that they have clinched a winning season. I would also like to note that the Rangers have the worst record among the playoff teams, so they will start off on the road, playing the winner of the East, which is just to close to call if it will be either it will be the Ray's or the Yankees. The Wild Card team will play the Twins and also be on the road, irregardless of whether they have a better record than the Twins, if I understand that correctly.

I don't have too much time to really reflect on this game, but I can't see myself picking the Mariners. The Rangers are hot, Wilson is going for his 15th win and even though he has never pitched this many innings in a major league season, I still like him for this one.

King Felix has a solid 2.39 ERA, but only an 11-11 record.

I will  have to say that this could start out a really low scoring game, but being that Hernandez isn't getting run support, he isn't getting the wins that he really should. Tonight will not be any different. Wilson himself has a 3.25 ERA, but the Rangers are really clicking. Look for an 8th straight victory tonight. Magic number to drop to at least 7 games. Prediction: Rangers 5-2, scoring two runs late in the game.

1st Half Cy Young Contenders

Every year, Major League Baseball gives out a Cy Young Award for the best pitcher in both the AL and NL, as voted on by members of the Baseball Writers Association of America. If a comparable award were given in fantasy baseball, the results likely would not match.

Many baseball pools focus primarily on wins, strikeouts and ERA, while others require the versatility and dominance of a flame-thrower who can pile up complete games and shutouts while eating innings.

Here's a look at the frontrunners for this year's Cy Young awards:

The NL contenders

Ubaldo Jimenez (COL - SP)

As discussed among baseball's first-half surprises, Ubaldo Jimenez has easily been the most improved pitcher from last season. He's gone from posting a 15-12 record in the 2008-09 campaign to having a 15-2 record this season through July 26. Jimenez has pitched three complete games, two shutouts and one no-hitter while striking out 120, but his ERA has dropped to 10th in the majors at 2.75 after two recent rough outings. Plus, he has walked 55 batters. Unlike the other NL Cy Young candidates, Jimenez isn't a perennial top draft choice, so he's brought some unexpected fantasy value to his owners as the current league-leader in wins.

Josh Johnson (FLA - SP)

Like Jimenez, Florida's Josh Johnson has been an all-around star pitcher this season, but has been exceptional in one particular category. Johnson leads the majors with a sparkling 1.61 ERA. The only other starter below 2.00 is St. Louis's Adam Wainwright at 1.94. At 10-3 with 141 strikeouts, which is good for second in the NL, just 29 walks allowed and a stellar 0.97 WHIP, Johnson likely has the edge over Jimenez at this point in the NL overall — and in terms of the best NL pitcher in fantasy baseball.

Roy Halladay (PHI - SP)

Roy Halladay doesn't seem to mind pitching in the National League. Although he spent his entire career up until this season in the AL with the Blue Jays, Halladay has shown little need for a learning curve and is still the same dominant pitcher. Case in point: he is first in complete games (seven), shutouts (three) and innings pitched (162). He's fourth in ERA (2.28), seventh in strikeouts (140) and tied for eighth in wins (11). What's even more impressive is that Halladay has allowed the second-fewest walks (20) of any of the top 70 strikeout leaders in the majors, behind Cliff Lee, although Doc also has eight losses.

Adam Wainwright (STL - SP)

You know that the crop of pitchers in the NL is phenomenal when we're talking about Adam Wainwright fourth on this list. He's actually been the best pitcher in the majors over the past month. He's gone 4-0 with a complete game, 29 K's and an unbelievable 0.25 ERA. On the season, Wainwright is second in wins with a record of 14-5, fourth with four complete games, fourth among pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched with a 1.00 WHIP and second with an enviable 1.94 ERA. He's also fifth in the NL with 136 strikeouts.

Chris Carpenter (STL - SP)

The other half of St. Louis's one-two punch is also having a stellar season, as usual. Chris Carpenter is 11-3 with 122 strikeouts and a 3.09 ERA in 22 starts. The 2005 NL Cy Young Award winner has pitched 148.2 innings, good for third in the majors, but he has no complete games through July 26.

Tim Lincecum (SF - SP)

This list wouldn't be complete without two-time reigning Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum. Lincecum has a ways to go if he's to catch the aforementioned contenders or even match his stats from the past two seasons. San Francisco's ace is 10-4 with a 3.12 ERA in 21 starts. He leads the NL with 143 strikeouts, but has already surrendered 53 walks. By comparison, in 2009 Lincecum was 15-7 with a 2.48 ERA and just 68 walks, while in 2008 he went 18-5 with a 2.62 ERA.

The AL contenders

Cliff Lee (TEX - SP)

If you haven't been paying attention to Cliff Lee's stats, you may think he was shipped out of Seattle because he's been underperforming. It's quite the opposite. The Texas Rangers acquired one of the best pitchers in baseball. Yes, he's only 9-4, but that's in just 16 starts. The 2008 Cy Young winner leads the American League with a 2.56 ERA and six complete games. He has also walked a measly seven batters all season, which is the fewest walks allowed among pitchers in the top 70 in strikeouts. Throw in the fact that Lee has the best WHIP among starters at 0.92 to go along with 101 strikeouts and you have yourself a frontrunner for the AL Cy Young Award.

Carl Pavano (MIN - SP)

More than any other pitcher on this list, Carl Pavano is an excellent example of a pitcher who likely won't win the Cy Young, but probably would have won a fantasy baseball version if there was one. He doesn't lead any pitching categories after 20 starts with the Twins, but he's near the top in several of them. More important, though, he went largely undrafted or was a very late steal in Yahoo fantasy leagues. Pavano is tied for fourth in the majors in wins (12-6), tied for third in complete games (five), tied for second in shutouts (two) and is seventh in innings pitched (143.2). He has a respectable 3.26 ERA, 81 strikeouts and just 19 walks. Additionally, Pavano is fifth among pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched with a minuscule 1.01 WHIP and has pitched complete games in his previous two starts.

CC Sabathia (NYY - SP)

Baseball fans have become accustomed to the consistent dominance of CC Sabathia and again this year he's not disappointing. He's tied for first in the AL in wins with 13 and is third with 144.1 innings pitched. Sabathia also has three complete games, two shutouts, a 3.18 ERA, 119 K's and just three losses on the season. More important, he is 9-0 in his last 10 starts for New York.

David Price (TB - SP)

The American League's starter at the 81st all-star game has had an up-and-down month, but David Price is still squarely in the race for the top pitcher award. The Tampa Bay starter is tied for first in the AL in wins with a career-high 13 (to go along with five losses) and, despite being higher up the list until recently, Price finds himself in fifth with a 2.90 ERA. The 2007 first overall pick has also obtained new personal benchmarks in strikeouts (108), complete games (two) and shutouts (one) and will add games started and innings pitched to that list shortly. You couldn't ask for much more from a late-round pick in your draft.

Felix Hernandez (SEA - SP)

With Cliff Lee now in Texas, Felix Hernandez has resumed his role as the Mariners' ace. He's third in the majors in strikeouts with 145, second in innings pitched with 160.2 and tied for third with five complete games. Hernandez is also third in the AL with a 2.86 ERA, but has a record of just 7-7 in 22 starts. Like last year, it seems Hernandez could possibly be on pace for a better second half of the season though. In the past month, he's 2-2 with a 1.88 ERA, 40 strikeouts, three complete games and a shutout.

Jon Lester (BOS - SP)

One fairly surprising candidate for the award this season is Jon Lester. In a stacked Red Sox rotation, which includes another potential contender in Clay Buchholz, Lester has a record of 11-5 with two complete games. He's tied for fourth in the majors with 143 strikeouts and has a 2.92 ERA, which is good for sixth in the AL.

Jered Weaver (LAA - SP)

Though his record and ERA are not leading the league through 21 starts (9-6, 3.22 ERA), Jered Weaver is one of the MLB's top flame-throwers in 2010. Weaver is second in the majors in strikeouts, just two behind his new teammate Dan Haren, with 147 and he has walked just 30 batters. Not bad for a guy who had a career-high 174 punch-outs last season in 33 starts.

Trivia: Who was the last Ranger pitcher to get a Cy Young award?

Newberg Report Update: More on Kinsler

Local reports now indicate that it’s a strained left groin, rather than a left leg injury, that will force Ian Kinsler to the disabled list.

Also, Tampa Bay has apparently pulled righthander Jeremy Hellickson from his AAA start after three scoreless innings this morning.  He’s a deep blue chipper.  If he’s being pulled to preserve him for an imminent trade, it’s going to be a big one.

-Jamey

Tim McCarver Compares Yankees to Communists and Nazis

By Craig Calcaterra

It doesn't happen very often, but Tim McCarver actually said something interesting during the Yankees-Rays game on Saturday. Too bad it wasn't interesting in a good way. Here's what he said, transcribed by Lisa Swan over at Subway Squawkers:

"You remember some of those despotic leaders in World War II, primarily in Russia and Germany, where they used to take those pictures that they had ... taken of former generals who were no longer alive, they had shot 'em. They would airbrush the pictures, and airbrushed the generals out of the pictures. In a sense, that's what the Yankees have done with Joe Torre. They have airbrushed his legacy. I mean, there's no sign of Joe Torre at the stadium. And, that's ridiculous. I don't understand it."

Not surprisingly, this has created a great deal of ire across the Internets since Saturday. And I understand why. What he said was really, really stupid. Only I don't think the Nazi/Communist comparison -- in and of itself -- is what makes the comments stupid.

Obviously anyone should tread lightly when playing the Nazi/Soviet card because it's not too often that you're going to be making a fair comparison in terms of moral equivalence. I mean really, no matter who your subject is, odds are pretty good that he or she wasn't responsible for the deaths of tens of millions of people.

But McCarver is obviously not making a moral equivalence here. He's simply saying that he thinks the Yankees are playing propaganda games like Hitler and Stalin did. As I explain below it's a dumb point, but if you're trying to make a propaganda analogy -- especially when talking about airbrushing figures out of photos in an effort to alter history -- Nazi Germany and Soviet Russia really are the go-to references. Heavy-handed, sure, but I don't think McCarver is treading in taboo territory here.

But his comments were stupid. Why? Because as several people have pointed out, he's simply wrong. There are pictures of Torre on championship banners on field level at the ballpark. There are photos of him in pictures of celebrations of championships in some of the luxury boxes and elsewhere. As such, McCarver saying that Torre has been removed from Yankees history is just false.

And really, what would McCarver have the Yankees do regarding Torre's legacy at this point? He's an active manager working for a historic rival. When he left town, he wrote a book about the Yankees that pissed just about everyone off. Would McCarver expect the Yankees to have a statue of Joe Torre up at the main gate? Should there be a giant banner with his likeness hanging next to the Hess ad on the scoreboard? Call me in 25 years if the Yankees haven't honored Torre somehow, but I think it's a little premature for the team to be building monuments to the man, especially given the recent bad blood.

Oh, and one final note. If McCarver is going to accuse the Yankees of not treating Torre's legacy fairly, perhaps he should disclose to viewers who were not otherwise aware that he is Torre's close friend and former teammate and may very well be letting his personal feelings color his perception of how the guy is being treated by the Yankees.

The upshot of all of this: I'm not going to burn McCarver at the stake for saying what he said, because his comments weren't outrageous in the way a lot of people are saying. They were just wrong in the fairly normal and conventional way in which we've come to expect Tim McCarver to be wrong about things over the years.

MLB Second Half Preview

When Oakland outfielder Rajai Davis heard the Texas Rangers had acquired Cliff Lee from Seattle late last month, he reacted the same way as many others around baseball.

“They’re trying to make a real run, huh?” Davis said. “They’re not playing around.”

The Rangers may be in the middle of a messy ownership change that includes a rancorous bankruptcy proceeding, but that didn’t stop them from making the first major splash before the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. Texas added Lee to a team that will carry a 41/2-game lead in the AL West into the second half of the season, which begins Thursday.

The Rangers are looking for their first playoff appearance since 1999, and adding Lee to a formidable offence lets everyone know they’re serious. Lee was 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA in five postseason starts last year for the Phillies. But more importantly, he was 2-0 against the mighty New York Yankees in the World Series.

So who will be the next team to make a move?

The Los Angeles Angels are looking to add a big bat to stay in contention with Texas, and the AL Central-leading Chicago White Sox have similar designs.

“The probability of big guys moving at the deadline is always a risky proposition to try to handicap,” Angels’ manager Mike Scioscia said. “Things can change from week to week.”

One thing we do know is that the winner of the National League pennant will have home-field advantage for the World Series after the NL beat the American League 3-1 on Tuesday night for its first victory in the all-star game since 1996.

With tight races everywhere and the powerful Yankees playing for something bigger than just another title, buckle up for what is shaping to be a wild ride over the next few months.

Here’s a look at some of the keys to the rest of the season:

MOTIVATED YANKEES: The Yankees steamrolled into the all-star break with 30 victories in their final 44 games, looking every bit the favourite that they usually are.

The defending world champions may not even need to make a move after getting all the extra motivation they needed when long-time owner George Steinbrenner died this week.

Alex Rodriguez shared a story about a handwritten note Steinbrenner had delivered to him in 2004 that read “I’m counting on you” with capital letters and exclamation point.

“So I think to this day, we are still playing for him, not to let him down,” A-Rod said.

TIGHT RACES: No team is running away with anything. The biggest lead in any division is the Rangers’ 4 1 / 2 games over the Angels in the AL West.

A few of the more intriguing races:

—AL East: Arguably the three best teams in baseball – the Yankees (56-32), Rays (54-34) and Red Sox (51-37) – are fighting for the title and likely the AL wild card. The Atlanta Braves (52-36) are the only other team in baseball with a better record than third-place Boston.

—NL West: Can Mat Latos, Heath Bell and the remarkably successful San Diego Padres make their two-game lead over the Rockies and Dodgers stand up for another few months?

—NL Central: The Cincinnati Reds (49-41) have been the other big surprise, one game in front of star-studded St. Louis at the break.

KEY INJURIES: They always play a big part in who makes it in and who falls short in the playoff race. This year, several teams have been ravaged, including:

—Boston Red Sox: pitcher Clay Buchholz, catcher Victor Martinez, second baseman Dustin Pedroia (fractured left foot), outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury (broken ribs), catcher Jason Varitek (fractured right foot), third baseman Mike Lowell (right hip) and pitcher Josh Beckett (back) have all missed significant time. Yet the Red Sox still trail the Yankees by only five games in the AL East.

—Philadelphia Phillies: The two-time defending NL champs, and the 2008 World Series champs, are off to a slower start this year after injuries to second baseman Chase Utley (right thumb), pitcher J.A. Happ (left forearm) and third baseman Placido Polanco (left elbow). Utley isn’t expected back any time soon, and key relievers Ryan Madson and Chad Durbin have also been hurt.

—New York Mets: Shortstop Jose Reyes aggravated his sore right side and missed the all-star game, but centre fielder Carlos Beltran is set to make his season debut Thursday after right knee surgery.

—Minnesota Twins: First baseman Justin Morneau (concussion) has been out a week, shortstop J.J. Hardy and second baseman Orlando Hudson have made trips to the disabled list, and catcher Joe Mauer’s shoulder is hurting for the stumbling Twins, who have fallen to third place in the AL Central.

YOUNG GUNS: It’s not just the year of the pitcher, it’s the year of the young pitcher.

“It seemed like 15 years ago, it was a time of young shortstops, and other times, it seems there’s an influx of great, young talent in outfielders,” Yankees’ manager Joe Girardi said. “But right now the influx of young pitching in baseball is incredible, and not just guys with stuff; guys that know how to pitch in tough division series at a young age.”

Can these young guns hold up through hot pennant races?

—Tampa Bay Rays: David Price (24) started the all-star game, and Matt Garza (26) was the MVP of the ALCS two years ago. James Shields (28), Jeff Niemann (27) and Wade Davis (24) give the second-place Rays a battle-tested young staff.

—Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies: The 26-year-old Dominican is chasing history at 15-1 at the break, and he has the Rockies two games back of San Diego in second place in the NL West.

—Cincinnati Reds: Johnny Cueto (24) and Mike Leake (22) were a combined 14-3 at the break, and Travis Wood (23) nearly tossed a perfect game last Saturday against Philadelphia.

—Stephen Strasburg, Nationals (pictured): The Nationals may be out of it, but it’s going to be fun watching how baseball’s newest rock star responds to all the attention that has turned each of the rookie’s starts into an event.

The Associated Press

Dallas Braden Ready to Put Perfect Game Behind Him

By STEPHEN HAWKINS AP Sports Writer

A few hours after throwing his perfect game, Dallas Braden was back to being the kid from Stockton, Calif., hanging out with his dog and fish.

"I went home and chipped around on my putting green, watched my dog chase the balls around because none of them went in the hole," Braden said Tuesday before the Oakland Athletics played their first game since the left-hander's gem. "Fed the fish and went over to a family's house and had a Mother's Day barbecue."

Braden grew up in Stockton, the son of a single, working mother who died of skin cancer when he was a high school senior. But he did get to share the 19th perfect game in major league history with his beloved grandmother, who was in the stands Sunday, and his teammates, who knew how special it was for him.

Instead of jubilant screaming and jumping around, there was heartfelt emotion in the clubhouse after Braden threw the A's first perfect game since Hall of Famer Jim "Catfish" Hunter accomplished the feat on May 8, 1968, against the Minnesota Twins.

Blue Jays Building a Winner from the Ground Up

By Morgan Campbell Sports Reporter

DUNEDIN, Fla.–If you think the crowds at the Rogers Centre are small, try a game in the Dominican Summer League, bottom rung of the Blue Jays' minor-league ladder.

Pitching prospect Luis Perez, who played there in 2005 and '06, says he has never seen fewer spectators as a pro.

"When I would pitch, there would be, like, 30 fans," said Perez, who went 9-11 at Double-A New Hampshire last season. "Maybe 25."

In the DSL, kids as young as 16 compete to move one step closer to the majors and Florida's Gulf Coast League prospects fresh out of high school also toil in front of similarly miniscule crowds.

Those destinations aren't sexy, but they're essential, the entry points to a minor-league system Toronto general manager Alex Anthopoulos and his staff hope will help propel the Jays back to major-league glory.

World Series Game 5: Rays vs. Phillies

It would seem that I have been on vacation... or maybe I am just a little lazy. Probably the latter. This is a tough series for me. Both teams have really been a bit of a surprise in my mind. The Rays haven't won more than 70 games up until this season and here they are in the big show. The Phillies... well, who predicts the Phillies to really do anything anymore. If I pick the Rays, it could be one of the signs of the end of the world... and if I predict the Phillies to win this thing... well, maybe that could be an apocalyptic sign as well. Can the World Series end in a tie?

I guess at this point, the Phillies pretty much have this one in the bag, considering they are up 3 games to one. I was really thinking the series would have gone the other way, with the Rays winning in 6. The only way the Rays can win it now is winning the final three games. It's not likely to happen, but I think they can win game five and take it back to Tampa. If they can push a game 6, they do have a much better chance. I don't think they would pull it off, but stranger things. After, the Rays are in the World Series against the Phillies... and who would have thought that...
Forecast: Phillies drop game five and a game six is forced. Phillies take game six, though, to wrap it up in Tampa.

Home Plate

ALCS Game 2: Boston at Tampa Bay

Imagine if these two guys were throwing snowballs... that could hurt. BoSox took game 1. Now, for game 2.
Scouting Report:

Red Sox: Coming off a right oblique injury that pushed him back a few days against the Angels, Beckett wasn't particularly sharp in his Game 3 start in the ALDS, throwing 106 pitches over five innings and giving up nine hits and four runs. He'll have five days of rest for this start. Despite the struggles of his last start, Beckett's postseason track record (6-2, 2.09 ERA in 11 outings) speaks for itself. Beckett has made four career starts at Tropicana Field, going 1-2 with a 1.93 ERA. Beckett is no stranger to the Rays, having faced them five times in 2008. He was 2-1 with a 2.06 ERA in those outings.

Rays: Kazmir recorded the win that gave the Rays a 2-0 series lead over Chicago in the ALDS. The youngest member of the Rays rotation, Kazmir gave a gutsy performance, wriggling out of a 37-pitch first inning with two runs allowed. Two pitches into the game, Kazmir hit White Sox leadoff man Orlando Cabrera with a pitch and the southpaw followed with a walk to Nick Swisher. Chicago's Jermaine Dye added a single to load the bases, creating a daunting situation early. Kazmir said he was simply struggling with his location, and was economical enough in the following frames to exit with the lead after 5 1/3 innings. When he has command of his slider, Kazmir can be devastating. He is a career 6-7 against the Red Sox, with 3.62 ERA.

Forecast: I'm going with the Rays on this one. Mainly that it is in there house and I like Kazmir. Score: 5-4.

Home Plate

ALCS Game 1: Boston at Tampa Bay

Here is some food for thought: Tampa Bay went 10-8 against the Red Sox this season.

Scouting Report:

Red Sox: Matsuzaka, the 18-game winner during the regular season, will be working on six days of rest. However, Matsuzaka labored through his Game 2 start against the Angels, throwing 108 pitches over five innings and giving up eight hits and three runs. The right-hander was dominant on the road this season, going 9-0 with a 2.37 ERA in 13 starts. Despite being in the Major Leagues for just two seasons, Matsuzaka has pitched eight times against the Rays, going 2-3 with a 2.75 ERA. Five of those starts have come at Tropicana Field, where Matsuzaka is 1-2 with a 3.41 ERA. Dice-K led the Majors this season by holding opponents to a .211 batting average.

Rays to Watch:

• Akinori Iwamura: 9-24 (.375 BA) with a double, a HR, and a RBI
• Carlos Pena: 5-16 (.313 BA) with 2 doubles, a HR, and 4 RBIs

And that is about it for all the good numbers against Dice K. The Rays are 27-120 (.225 BA) with 4 doubles, 4 HRs, and 13 RBIs. Evan Longoria is 1-2 with a RBI... he seems to be the workhorse that the Rays generally depend on. If he has a good series, the Rays should have a good series.

Rays: Shields got the win in Game 1 of the ALDS. He overcame a rocky third inning, in which he yielded a three-run homer to Chicago's Dewayne Wise, to turn in a respectable outing. The right-hander exited after loading the bases with one out in the seventh inning, but the Rays' bullpen held the White Sox in check to preserve the win. Shields has worked 215 innings this season -- matching his total from 2007 exactly -- and has thrown three of the Rays' seven shutouts.

Shields went 2-2 against Boston this season and 20 innings in four starts. He had a 5.85 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP against the BoSox, yeilding 20 hits, two for HRs. In the postseason, Shields has one QS and a 4.26 ERA

BoSox to Watch:

• JD Drew: 5-15 with 2 doubles, a HR, and 2 RBIs.
• David Ortiz: 7-14 with 4 doubles, 2 HRs, and 6 RBIs.
• Julio Lugo: 4-12 with 2 doubles and 2 RBIs.

Something interesting to note is Kevin Youkilis is 0-17 against Shields. The Red Sox roster is 29-110 (.264 BA) with 9 doubles, 3 HRs, and 12 RBIs.

Forecast: I like Boston for this first game. Look for a low secoring affair by the Rays, Boston stomps them in this one with a score of 6-1.

Home Plate

The Championship Series

I like the Rays over Boston in 6. I know I said in a previous post that Boston or the Angels would be in the Series, but I have CHANGED my mind. Over in the National League, I like the Dodgers in five games. If it should play out that way, I like the Dodgers in the Series.

Home Plate

ALDS Game 1: White Sox vs Rays

I guess the main question to be asked here is this: Is there enough gas in the tank for the White Sox? They have had to be pushed to win for three straight days, they get one day off and now they have to do it again. Do they have any staying power?

Here's another question: Are the Rays too green right now to win this series? Sox have experience and the Rays do not... the Sox are tied, but have momentum, and the Rays are rested. So many intangibles for this series...

White Sox: Manager Ozzie Guillen announced that Vazquez will make the Game 1 start for the White Sox, pitching on four days' rest after pitching Saturday on short rest. Vazquez, has a 1-2 record and 3.54 ERA against the Rays this season, along with a 5-9 record and 5.10 ERA on the road.

Javier Vazquez is probably not the ideal choice to start the series. He has a 12-16 record with a 4.67 ERA this season, but has a 5-4 record with a 4.36 ERA in his career against the Rays. In his last start against the Rays, he went seven innings to grab a loss, giving up only 5 hits and a walk, but gave up four runs. The Sox lost that game 5-3. He holds the Rays to a .262 batting average.

The Rays roster is currently 50-213 (.235 BA) with 11 doubles, 2 triples, 2 HRs and 13 RBIs.

Rays to Watch:

• Cliff Floyd: 10-43 (.233 BA) with 2 doubles, a HR, and 3 RBIs
• Carl Crawford: 11-26 (.423 BA) with 3 doubles, 2 triples, and 2 RBIs
• BJ Upton: 6-12 with an RBI

Rays: Shields pitched one inning Sunday against the Tigers in a final tune-up before the playoffs and retired the side in order. The 26-year-old right-hander's best pitch has always been his changeup, but he also has a plus fastball and curve, and he's added a cutter that has helped him throw inside to left-handers. Shields enters the playoffs after pitching 215 innings for the second consecutive season, which is a testament to his style of pitching and his competitiveness. Unless something goes drastically wrong, Shields can be counted upon to give the team seven or more innings. Shields is 9-2 with a 2.59 ERA in 17 starts at Tropicana Field this season.

Shields has three career games against the Sox and is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA in 20 innings. He has given up 26 hits, four for HRs, to Chicago, while walking 4 and striking out 19. Chicago has hit him for a .321 batting average. His last start was no different as they had 7 hits in six innings, but only allowed one run on a solo shot to Ramirez. Tampa Bay won that game in the bottom of the ninth with a solo HR by Floyd, 2-1. That game was back on May 30th.

Sox to Watch:

• Orlando Cabrera: 4-11 (.364 BA) with a double and a RBI
• Jermaine Dye: 4-7 (.571 BA) with a double
• Joe Crede: 3-6 with a double

Other things that are notable is Nick Swisher who is 1-6, but has a HR and 4 RBIs. Alexei Rameriz is 2-2 with a solo HR. Jim Thome is 3-9 with a HR and RBI, but has also struck out 5 times against Shields. The current roster is 25-67 (.373 BA) with 3 doubles, a triple (by Uribe), 3 HRs, and 7 RBIs.Forecast: I like the Sox in this one, although I am not really sure why. They do have the better hitting, and maybe that could be it. This game is at the Rays house... Vazquez isn't really what I would call a "winning pitcher" either. Still, I think I will go with my gut on this one and call for the upset to start, Sox win it 8-5.

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Game 123: Rangers vs. Rays

The Texas Rangers are sick. And not the sick that means cool. They are just not playing well. The pitching isn't there and the hitting is sporadic at best. And I predicted a Red Sox sweep and it happened, so I shouldn't be surprised and dispirited. And yet I am. I have been told that I am the biggest Rangers fan ever... so... I guess I'll start this series off with the Quick Picks.

Tampa Bay comes into this series with a record of 73-47. They have already set a franchise record for wins in a season and they still have 42 games to go. The Texas Rangers come in to the series back at 500 with a 61-61 record. They have lost 7 of their last 8 games, one in which they scored 17 runs and lost, and three others in which they were shutout (one to the Yankees, one to Baltimore, and one to the Red Sox). They are avering 5 runs a game over the last 8, but subtract the last Baltimore game and the first Red Sox game, and the average is 1.33 runs a game. And that really is what tells the story of how theses guys are playing.

• Game 1: Matt Garza (9-7, 3.88 ERA) vs. Kevin Millwood (6-6, 5.40 ERA)

Quick Pick: Millwood isn't the Ace the Rangers hoped they had signed. He really is a #2 or a solid #3 guy. I like Garza in this one.

• Game 2: Matt Harrison (4-2, 7.07 ERA) vs. Edwin Jackson (9-7, 4.07 ERA)

Quick Pick: Harrison is either really good or really bad. And the way the Rangers have been playing, it would make sense to pick Tampa in this one, too.

• Game 3:Vicente Padilla (12-6, 4.85 ERA) vs. Scott Kazmir (8-6, 3.22 ERA)

Quick Pick: Padilla is always a safe bet to break up a losing streak. And I pick him busting up on Tampa. Go RANGERS!!!

Garza is 2-1 in his career against the Rangers, but 1-1 this season. He only pitched four innings against the Rangers earlier this year (June 8th) and gave up 3 runs off of 2 HRs, 6 hits total and one walk. He's much better on his career numbers, going 18.1 innings with 3 dingers and 16 hits, yeilding 7 runs but only 6 earned for a 2.95 ERA. Historically, the Rangers hit .222 off of him, but .300 this season.

Garza has been inconsistent this season, pitching less than 6 innings in three of his last four starts, and the one that wasn't less was a complete game shutout. Go figure. He's been hammered by Seattle and Cleveland of late, and has two shutout performances against Toronto.

Rangers to Watch:

• Frank Catalanotto: 4-11 (.364 BA); 1 HR and 1 RBI
• David Murphy: 3-10 (.300 BA); 1 double, 1 HR, and 1 RBI
• Ian Kinsler: 3-9 (.333 BA)
• Milton Bradley: 3-7 (.429 BA); 2 RBIs

The current Ranger roster is slapping him for a .257 batting average. All the important stuff is listed above...

Kevin Millwood (who is coming off the DL for this one) is 1-1 in three career starts against Tampa. He has 19 innings, yeilded 18 hits (4 for HRs) for a 6.63 ERA. Tampa has hit for a .250 batting average. He has not pitched against Tampa this season. His last start was on July 23rd. Eight of his last nine starts have been on the road, going 4-4 on those road games and losing the one home game in the mix. Five out of his last six games have been less than 6 innings. He's been slapped around this year, giving up a hearty .324 batting average and more than one HR per ten innings. He could come off the DL with solid pitching, which is normally Millwood's trend, so this could be a good game for the Rangers...

Texas is 31-26 at home. Millwood is 4-1 at home. I like those numbers.

Rays to Watch:

• Cliff Floyd: 9-31 (.290 BA); 3 doubles and 5 RBIs
• Eric Hinske: 4-8 (.500 BA)
• Rocco Baldelli: 3-4 (.750 BA); 1 double, 1 triple, and 1RBI

As a team, the current Rays are 20-75 with a .267 batting average on Millwood.

I need to keep reminding myself that there’s been serious progress in 2008:

• A new identity not seen on this club in years – a tough, resilient, confident attitude, with lots of fight and lots of heart.
• A strong, young core offensively.
• A spectacular year in player development, particularly on the mound.
• An absolutely crystal-clear picture of what needs to be fixed at the big league level to take the next step.

The Rangers have not signed there top two draft picks this season. They could lose the rights to those players if they do not sign them today. Let's cross our fingers now...

Notable injuries:

• Evan Longoria (Tampa Bay)
• Carl Crawford (Tampa Bay)
• David Murphy (Texas)
• CJ Wilson (Texas)
• Hank Blalock (Texas)
• Kason Gabbard (Texas)
• Eric Hurley (Texas)
• Jason Jennings (Texas)
• AJ Murray (Texas)
• John Rheinecker (Texas)

Forecast: I like the Rangers chances a little better than before. I don't care for Millwood's history against the Rays and I do not care for his ERA. I remember the vibe that was in town when he signed here. That vibe is now gone. Last year, Millwood finished the year with his highest ERA ever. His ERA is even higher this season. He does flurish at home and Garza struggles in Arlington. With those two things, I go against my Quick Pick and say the Rangers go back above 500 with a 6-4 victory. Millwood does go 6 innings in this one. Johnny Out.

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Game 65: Rangers vs. Rays

Will the Rangers win the series against Tampa Bay? Well, it's really difficult to say, since I am doing this post on Friday and may not be able to get back to the computer to make changes. But, by my forecast, it should be 1-1 split to this point. Hopefully, by this time, the series will be 2-0 Rangers coming into this one.
Doug Mathis vs. Matt Garza. I have to come clean right about now. I haven't been really all that impressed with Doug Mathis. I know he is young and all... but he's hasn't given me the feeling that he can handle the Majors just yet.

So, let's start with the scary news. Matt Garza ripped into the Rangers on 5/28/08. He tossed eight innings giving up two runs on four hits and two walks. He sent 10 to the bench. And his career 2-0 record against the Rangers and 1.88 ERA speak volumns. The Rangers hit .192 off of him. He is coming off of a bad start against the Red Sox, so maybe the Rangers can kick him while he is down. Five of his last seven starts have been six innings or more and he has a 4-2 record this season. Want more good news? He is 1-2 on the road and has a 6.18 ERA away from Tampa. The most a Rangers batter has in the way of at-bats against Garza is eight. The current roster bats .260 (13-50) off of him, but strike out almost as much as they hit (13 hits/12 Ks).

Rangers to Watch:

• Frank Catalanotto: 4-8 (500 BA); 1 HR and 1 RBI
• Milton Bradley: 3-6 (500 BA); 2 RBIs

Those two make up for more than half of the Ranger hits on Garza. Murphy (2), Young (1), Kinsler (2), and Vazquez (1) have the rest. It's strange, but since I looked at the numbers, the Rangers offense just might do OK in this game.

So... I guess I have to do Doug Mathis. Now, don't get me wrong, this kid was stellar in the minors. And he's even great as a guy in the bullpen. But moving from the pen to a starter, well, it hasn't boaded well with him. He's had three career starts and been hammered TWICE. And for those scoring at home, that won't keep you in the rotation long. He hasn't ever faced Tampa Bay. Here's the ugly. His ERA is an even 9.00, so he gives up a run an inning. His first three appearances were hitless and yet he has given up 27 hits in 12 innings since. He has a 1-1 record and his opponents hit .397 against him. Let me type that again... .397 batting average for his opponents. Ugly. UGLY.

On a side note, the Rangers draft was like this:

• 50 selections: 26 pitchers and 24 position players
• 6 of first 10: Pitchers
• 3 of first 10: Outfielders

Draft Breakdown:

• 1 Second Baseman
• 3 First Basemen
• 3 Switch Hitters
• 4 Catchers
• 5 Shortstops
• 8 Left Handed Pitchers
• 11 Outfielders (5 listed as Center Fielders)
• 13 High Schoolers
• 18 Right Handed Pitchers

Show me some GREEN! It's alway a good thing to have some.

Forecast: This could be one sided... either way, or it could be a tight game. I don't really expect it to be a tight game from the Rangers pitching perspective. Mathis may need more confidence and the only way for him to get that is to get some time down under (AAA Oklahoma or AA Frisco). Another option is for the bullpen. But he's not going to do well in the starting rotation for this night. I hope he proves me wrong. It will be another slugfest in Arlington. Score: 11-8, Rangers on top thanks to Hamilton.

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Game 64: Texas vs. Tampa Bay

The second game of the series. The Rangers, will they pull themselves over 500 for good? I think they can do it. They are playing "average" baseball. And more importantly, they are playing as a team. The starters need to step it up again.
This could be the start for Feldman that gets him rolling. Feldman had lowered his ERA down to 3.45 after a start against the Mariners on 5/14. Since then, he has had starts that gave up 5 earned runs back to back and his last start he gave up four runs (three earned) in a no-decision. His ERA has climbed to 4.56 after his Oakland start. Here's some good news about Feldman starting: six consecutive starts of 6 innings or more. He helps give the bullpen some rest. He has a career 1-1 record against Tampa Bay in four appearances (no starts). He only has five innings of work and a 3.60 ERA to boot. The Rays hits a .250 batting average on Feldman. The current Rays roster hits a respectable .000 in nine at-bats. Nothing to watch here.

Sonnanstine is a career 0-2 against the Rangers with a 6.75 ERA. The Rangers hit .370 as a team on Andy with one HR and seven earned runs in 9.1 innings of work. The Rangers have 17 hits over that stretch and 12 total runs when he is on the hill. He is 0-2 in his last three starts this season. For the season, Sonnanstine is 6-3 with a 4.96 ERA. He has only hit 6 innings in a start twice in his last five starts. The current Ranger roster is 16-42 (.381 BA) off of Sonnanstine, with 6 doubles, 1 HR and 11 RBIs. No batter has more than 6 at-bats on him, so I am once again skipping the "Rangers to Watch".

Why not Purple? You have to check out that website. It will change your life in regards to purple.

Forecast: It only makes sense to say that the Rangers are going to rock on this game. It's also Michael Young Bobble-Head night... and I am willing to bet Michael will say yes to some good hits off of Sonnanstine. Score: 8-3, Rangers.

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Game 63: Texas vs. Tampa Bay

You know, I have been planing the posts ahead of time and the Rangers have really been stickin' it to me. They change the starter... and have done so several times of late. Hopefully, they will be a little gentle for a while to come. I do understand about injuries and blah-blah-blah... oh well. We have Scott Kazmir against a supposed Vicente Padilla. I am going to this game tonight since my wife won some tickets. It's going to be in my favorite section of the stadium. SWEET! It does get better than that, but only with a Rangers victory. And on Saturday, my son and I get to go to meet David Murphy. So, enough about having a great weekend coming up, let's look at Padilla and Kazmir.

Padilla has had four starts at home and is 2-1 with a complete game in Arlington. He has an even 3.00 ERA and his opposition has a .255 batting average.

Rays to watch:

• Cliff Floyd: 5-13 (385 BA); 3 HRs and 5 RBIs
• Carlos Pena: 3-6 (500 BA)
• Carl Crawford: 3-9 (333 BA); 1 double
• Rocco Baldelli: 2-3 (667 BA); 1 RBI

Tampa Bay is 22-65 off of Padilla, but only 4 HRs and 1 double for those extra base hits. They do have 11 RBIs in the mix.

Now, Kazmir is a material that sweaters are made of... It's also a pitcher for the Tampa Bay Rays. Kazmir owned the Rangers in his last start against them. He pitched seven innings and gave up only three hits. He struck out 10 rangers. He didn't walk any and gave up only one run. In his career against the Rangers, he is 2-0 in five starts and has a 1.86 ERA in 29 innings. He's got a decision in all six starts (5-1) this season and the only time he didn't go six innings or more was his first start of the season when he went four innings against the Red Sox. That is where he picked up his loss. The Rangers hit a career .202 batting average on Kazmir. The current Ranger roster is batting .115 on Kazmir (that's 6-52) with one double and 5 RBIs. No Ranger is worthy of being put on a watch list... the numbers make me sad. This could be a long game for me tonight as I watch this one in person.

I think the RED just might win this thing tonight. It will at least show, since they only run red, blue, and green. But I think Red is a winner for tonight.

Forecast: I can't say the Rangers are going to win this. It doesn't make any sense what-so-ever to say the Rangers are going to surprise us with a win. It could happen... but I wouldn't bet on it. Score: 3-2, Rays.

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