Chickens on the Run: Game 123: Rangers vs. Rays

The Texas Rangers are sick. And not the sick that means cool. They are just not playing well. The pitching isn't there and the hitting is sporadic at best. And I predicted a Red Sox sweep and it happened, so I shouldn't be surprised and dispirited. And yet I am. I have been told that I am the biggest Rangers fan ever... so... I guess I'll start this series off with the Quick Picks.

Tampa Bay comes into this series with a record of 73-47. They have already set a franchise record for wins in a season and they still have 42 games to go. The Texas Rangers come in to the series back at 500 with a 61-61 record. They have lost 7 of their last 8 games, one in which they scored 17 runs and lost, and three others in which they were shutout (one to the Yankees, one to Baltimore, and one to the Red Sox). They are avering 5 runs a game over the last 8, but subtract the last Baltimore game and the first Red Sox game, and the average is 1.33 runs a game. And that really is what tells the story of how theses guys are playing.

Game 1: Matt Garza (9-7, 3.88 ERA) vs. Kevin Millwood (6-6, 5.40 ERA)

Quick Pick: Millwood isn't the Ace the Rangers hoped they had signed. He really is a #2 or a solid #3 guy. I like Garza in this one.

Game 2: Matt Harrison (4-2, 7.07 ERA) vs. Edwin Jackson (9-7, 4.07 ERA)

Quick Pick: Harrison is either really good or really bad. And the way the Rangers have been playing, it would make sense to pick Tampa in this one, too.

Game 3:Vicente Padilla (12-6, 4.85 ERA) vs. Scott Kazmir (8-6, 3.22 ERA)

Quick Pick: Padilla is always a safe bet to break up a losing streak. And I pick him busting up on Tampa. Go RANGERS!!!

Garza is 2-1 in his career against the Rangers, but 1-1 this season. He only pitched four innings against the Rangers earlier this year (June 8th) and gave up 3 runs off of 2 HRs, 6 hits total and one walk. He's much better on his career numbers, going 18.1 innings with 3 dingers and 16 hits, yeilding 7 runs but only 6 earned for a 2.95 ERA. Historically, the Rangers hit .222 off of him, but .300 this season.

Garza has been inconsistent this season, pitching less than 6 innings in three of his last four starts, and the one that wasn't less was a complete game shutout. Go figure. He's been hammered by Seattle and Cleveland of late, and has two shutout performances against Toronto.

Rangers to Watch:

Frank Catalanotto: 4-11 (.364 BA); 1 HR and 1 RBI
David Murphy: 3-10 (.300 BA); 1 double, 1 HR, and 1 RBI
Ian Kinsler: 3-9 (.333 BA)
Milton Bradley: 3-7 (.429 BA); 2 RBIs

The current Ranger roster is slapping him for a .257 batting average. All the important stuff is listed above...

Kevin Millwood (who is coming off the DL for this one) is 1-1 in three career starts against Tampa. He has 19 innings, yeilded 18 hits (4 for HRs) for a 6.63 ERA. Tampa has hit for a .250 batting average. He has not pitched against Tampa this season. His last start was on July 23rd. Eight of his last nine starts have been on the road, going 4-4 on those road games and losing the one home game in the mix. Five out of his last six games have been less than 6 innings. He's been slapped around this year, giving up a hearty .324 batting average and more than one HR per ten innings. He could come off the DL with solid pitching, which is normally Millwood's trend, so this could be a good game for the Rangers...

Texas is 31-26 at home. Millwood is 4-1 at home. I like those numbers.

Rays to Watch:

Cliff Floyd: 9-31 (.290 BA); 3 doubles and 5 RBIs
Eric Hinske: 4-8 (.500 BA)
Rocco Baldelli: 3-4 (.750 BA); 1 double, 1 triple, and 1RBI

As a team, the current Rays are 20-75 with a .267 batting average on Millwood.

I need to keep reminding myself that there’s been serious progress in 2008:

A new identity not seen on this club in years – a tough, resilient, confident attitude, with lots of fight and lots of heart.
A strong, young core offensively.
A spectacular year in player development, particularly on the mound.
An absolutely crystal-clear picture of what needs to be fixed at the big league level to take the next step.

The Rangers have not signed there top two draft picks this season. They could lose the rights to those players if they do not sign them today. Let's cross our fingers now...

Notable injuries:

Evan Longoria (Tampa Bay)
Carl Crawford (Tampa Bay)
David Murphy (Texas)
CJ Wilson (Texas)
Hank Blalock (Texas)
Kason Gabbard (Texas)
Eric Hurley (Texas)
Jason Jennings (Texas)
AJ Murray (Texas)
John Rheinecker (Texas)

Forecast: I like the Rangers chances a little better than before. I don't care for Millwood's history against the Rays and I do not care for his ERA. I remember the vibe that was in town when he signed here. That vibe is now gone. Last year, Millwood finished the year with his highest ERA ever. His ERA is even higher this season. He does flurish at home and Garza struggles in Arlington. With those two things, I go against my Quick Pick and say the Rangers go back above 500 with a 6-4 victory. Millwood does go 6 innings in this one. Johnny Out.