Wednesday, October 06, 2010

ALDS: Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays (Game 1)

The Rangers return to the post-season for the first time since 1999 and have pitching that can make them stay in the playoffs for many seasons to come. A couple of things should stay in place, with one of those starting in Game 1 against the Rays.

Cliff Lee was 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA in five playoff starts for the Phillies last year. He's the only one of the Rangers' four starters with postseason experience. He's 6-5 with a 2.87 ERA in 13 career starts vs. the Rays (3-2 with a 3.86 ERA at Tropicana).

David Price is a career 0-2 against the Rangers in four starts. He's given up a whopping 16 runs in 19.1 innings, giving him a 7.45 ERA against Texas. He's also walked 15 but has fanned 19. At home this year, he is 9-2 in 16 starts with a 1.92 ERA. He only started one game against the Rangers this season, a no decision, and tossed six solid innings giving up two runs.

Postseason for Price hasn't been bad, as he got some work in 2008 in the postseason. He is 1-0, but hasn't started in the postseason. He has five games, totaling 5.2 innings with work against the Phillies and Boston (his win was a World Series victory).
Forecast: First off, even though we are playing a really tough team in the Tampa Bay Rays, I still pick the Rangers to win this series in four games, and that is taking into account that we haven't done well against the Rays this season and we haven't play well in day games. What I am taking into account, the intangible difference, is this team is healthy and they have a new found zeal in being in the playoffs. The Rays have been there, done that, and I just don't feel the excitement from the Rays that the Rangers have right now. I like the Rangers in this one, and I think this one will be REALLY close, as Price is better than his numbers would suggest. Rangers win it 3-2. Neftali gets the save.

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