ALDS: Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays (Game 1)

The Rangers return to the post-season for the first time since 1999 and have pitching that can make them stay in the playoffs for many seasons to come. A couple of things should stay in place, with one of those starting in Game 1 against the Rays.

Cliff Lee was 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA in five playoff starts for the Phillies last year. He's the only one of the Rangers' four starters with postseason experience. He's 6-5 with a 2.87 ERA in 13 career starts vs. the Rays (3-2 with a 3.86 ERA at Tropicana).

David Price is a career 0-2 against the Rangers in four starts. He's given up a whopping 16 runs in 19.1 innings, giving him a 7.45 ERA against Texas. He's also walked 15 but has fanned 19. At home this year, he is 9-2 in 16 starts with a 1.92 ERA. He only started one game against the Rangers this season, a no decision, and tossed six solid innings giving up two runs.

Postseason for Price hasn't been bad, as he got some work in 2008 in the postseason. He is 1-0, but hasn't started in the postseason. He has five games, totaling 5.2 innings with work against the Phillies and Boston (his win was a World Series victory).

Forecast: First off, even though we are playing a really tough team in the Tampa Bay Rays, I still pick the Rangers to win this series in four games, and that is taking into account that we haven't done well against the Rays this season and we haven't play well in day games. What I am taking into account, the intangible difference, is this team is healthy and they have a new found zeal in being in the playoffs. The Rays have been there, done that, and I just don't feel the excitement from the Rays that the Rangers have right now. I like the Rangers in this one, and I think this one will be REALLY close, as Price is better than his numbers would suggest. Rangers win it 3-2. Neftali gets the save.

Rangers vs. Rays

I am beginning to really despise the Rays. And I mean this in the most "gggrrr..." sort of way. They are quickly moving into Yankee territory. They knocked us off track last year amd we didn't recover. And this year, when a great spark off of coming down from a horrible stretch, the spark didn't happen. I am beginning to wonder if Millwood is to blame... and I say this simply because he will miss a total of a month due to injuries. Teixiera is trade bate. Will he be gone at the All-Star break or in the off-season, I am uncertain, but Newberg made a great argument for him being gone before the end of his contract. One thing Newberg didn't mention is the one simple fact: Young is the face of the Rangers, not Tex. And that is a statement that Tom Hicks made when Young signed his extension, just not in those words. I am not going to make a prediction for today's game against the Rays simply because I am frustrated - a frustrated fan - and don't want to point out that there is a lack of timely hitting, lack of the pitching, and the errors on the field. Some days the Rangers "have it", but lately is has been that the Rangers simply "don't"... maybe I am simply frustrated that I am hurting and have been looking for a spark in anything the media can provide and can't find one right now... I'll be back tomorrow with the weather, but right now, it is storming in my house with frustration - not good to make a forecast right now. Johnny Out.

The Texas Rangers vs. The Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Rangers vs. The 'Rays
I just want to get in the habit of saying it now. It's going to happen. It should happen. And when it does, I start pushing for a family reunion to be down in Tampa! After all, we are the Ray's. OK, onto more pressing issues, like today's game.

Jae-Weong Seo pitching for Tampa vs. Jamey Alan Wright pitching for Texas. Jamey Wright most likely has a love/hate relationship with his birthday - born on December 24, 1974... I'm sure his parents enjoyed the 1974 Tax Break, however. Jamey has not pitched a regular season game this season. He won the number five spot over Loe and Chen. Loe had pitched the best between the three, followed by Wright, then Chen. All surprisingly made the roster, especially Chen, who at the last minute renegotiated his contract.

I'll be honest, Jamey has never had "brilliant" numbers. He had a season with an ERA 4.10 (his lowest for a season) which was in 2000 with Milwaukee. He pitched 164 2/3 innings and gave up 12 homeruns, 88 walks, and 157 hits. His record in 25 starts was 7-9. Jamey has had a number of horrendous seasons with Colorado. Maybe he should keep it in his contract to never pitch there under ANY circumstances - when you see these numbers, you'll understand. One season: 6.25 ERA, 19 homeruns (1997). Another season: 5.67 ERA, 24 homeruns (1998). Yet another season: 5.46 ERA, 22 homeruns (2005). My two cents on this, don't let him have anything to do with Colorado again. Just let him flush them down the toilet and try to salvage a career that has only two seasons where Wright has finished at .500 or above (and that covers 11 seasons, by the way). In 1996 with Colorado, he finished with a 4-4 record. and in 1999 with Colorado he finished with a 4-3 record. I think it is important for Wright to have a great outing tonight, and even more so, a career season this year, in wins (11 is the most he's ever had), having a winning season, and lowering his career ERA (5.14 ERA) with a good mark this year. Will it happen? I guess he just has to get on the "Wright" track. (Wow, what a horrible pun.)

Now, Wright vs. Tampa: This is pretty simple. He's never started or pitched against Tampa Bay. He has faced several of their current players on their roster, thanks to the yearly dance we call the "Free Agency Shuffle" and then there's the Prom Night, where sometimes the Prom King gets traded away to a new high school for two cheerleaders to be named later. Anyway, there are six players Wright has faced on the 'Rays. Take a peek:

• Greg "Anti-Virus" Norton: 5 for 10 (3 doubles, 5 RBIs)
• Dioner Navarro: 4 for 11 (2 doubles)
• Carlos Pena: 1 for 3
• Casey Fossum: 1 for 3

The 'Rays, as a team, are hitting 12 for 36 combined with 5 RBIs, two walks, and seven strikeouts. Gary Glover is 0 for 4 and Ty Wigginton is 1 for 5 to round out the six Wright has faced. This game could be a morale booster for Wright, or it could be indications of another tough season for him. Its rough to say that one start can carry all this load with it, but let's just be honest on who this team is: IT IS TAMPA BAY!!! It's almost like saying you have a bye week in football. You don't want to look past them, but almost can't stop yourself from doing so... IT'S TAMPA BAY!!! OK, let's look at the 'Rays arm.

Jae-Weong Seo does well against the Rangers, but I will, of course, go into that in detail here in a second. Jae-Weong was born on May 24, 1977 and has five years of experience. He's sporting a 7.11 ERA coming into this game (WHERE'S THE BAND-AID!!!) in which he started a game against the Yankees. The 'Rays won the game 7-6, but Seo didn't snag the win. He pitched 6 1/3 innings and gave up 5 runs on 11 hits, but he didn't give up the long ball against a Yankee team that is supposed to hit them. In 2006, Seo gave up 17 shots in 90 innings! In 2005, it was 14 in just 67 innings. In 2004, it was 9 homeruns in 90 1/3 innings. in perspective, he gave up about a homerun ever 10 innings in '04, a homerun every 4.78 innings in '05, and a homerun every 5.29 innings in '06. The last two years, Seo has given a fan something when he hits the mound and a batter something good to see. And guess what, the Yankees didn't hit one out. The batters are due for some "home-run-fun" for tonight.

Seo has pitched against the Rangers once. Once. And he won. It was at the Ballpark in Arlington that was Ameriquest that is now the Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. I love playing with names. And so do sponsers. Can they stay with a name? JUST STAY WITH IT!!! Put a Nike logo over with the phrase "Just stay with it" and leave the "Rangers Ballpark in Arlington" as it is. For me, it has been and always will be "The Ballpark". Anyway, back to Seo... his ERA against the Rangers in this Stadium is 2.57 - He went seven innings, giving up two runs on eight hits, striking out six and walking one. I believe it will be a different night for him, on one simple fact. The hitters work the count. I can't see Seo getting away with one walk tonight. Let's look at the hitters against him:

• Brad Wilkerson: 11 for 46 (3 doubles, 1 triple, 1 homerun, 3 RBIs)
• Kenny Lofton: 4 for 15 (2 doubles, 2 homeruns, 2 RBIs, 3 walks)
• Sammy "Hunting 600" Sosa: 1 for 5 (1 homerun, 3 RBIs, 1 walk)
• Matt Kata: 1 for 4
• Michael Young: 1 for 3

Hank Blalock is 0 for 3, Mark Teixeira is 0 for 2, and Frank Catalanotto is 1 for 7. Those three hitters combine for 1 for 12. Millwood, Padilla, and Robinson Tejeda have also batted against him and combined for another 0 for 7. Add that to the 1 for 12 and that's a wonderful 1 for 19. The current roster is 19 for 92 which makes up a .207 batting average, but I can't see Millwood batting tonight. That would make for a strange night if he did. But, you have me, with my trusty nerd utility belt, the actual average would be 19 for 85, which is a .224 average. It's better than that cold average.

So, what does all this stuff mean? Seo is in a park where he can pitch. Wright hasn't pitched a regular season game and has never pitched against the 'Rays. A Ranger win tonight could mean a playoff win or it could mean missing the playoffs completely... OK, maybe not that much pressure, but it could mean Wright pitching in a starter role in May or not.

Forecast: Rangers outhit the Rays. Win 6-5. (Sosa goes deep against Seo with a two run shot!)

A Great Day in Dallas

A Great Day in Dallas

It's a GREAT day in Dallas! Let me tell you, The Rangers win, the Mavs win... that's right, the Mavs win, clinching Home-Court throughout. Dirk and Josh aren't even going to head out on the road trip. So the Cuban-American Team (and who says the Cold-War is dead?) look to finish with a slow finish heading into the playoffs, but they look to finish HEALTHY. That's important if they want to finish the playoffs winners. I'm itching to sway of my prediction from the middle of last month when I said 66 wins is where the Mavs would finish. I'm not even sure if it was on this blog or on the Mavs Yahoo Group, but I know I definitely said it on there... it would be easy now to go higher and say 67 from that prediction, but the Mavs could quite easily drop the next two in the blink of an eye. Dampier is also banged up with a sore shoulder. 66 wins looks nicer and nicer. Still 2-3 to finish? Yes. Would it make sense to play all the guys when you don't have too? Well, they still need to stretch their muscles, per se, but they shouldn't risk playing all 48 minutes on the court, by no means. I wouldn't play even half their normal time. Let them play like a bench player and the bench players play like the starters... reverse roles. This is the first time the Mavericks have won the Western Conference - and had the best record in the NBA. I guess it finally froze over or something.

Anyway, McCarty looked good, or at least his numbers did. K.Loe's numbers didn't. I'm not sure what's going on with Kam, but I noticed Chen got to pitch the 9th. I'm not sure if that was so the Rangers could showcase him for trade value or give him some work in preperation for sending down Kam to AAA Oklahoma. I can't say that I'm excited about Kam's ERA at 11.57 right now, but I don't really want him being sent down to the minors either. In both situations that Kameron Loe has pitched, that I have seen, Loe gave up runs in which the Rangers had a large lead. He has pitched in actually three games this season, the first game against the Angels in which he pitched a perfect inning of work. The second outing was against Boston in which he gave up one run in a third of an inning; he gave up two hits and a walk (as I recall, the umpire was not consistent that day for Loe). In today's game against the Tampa Bay Devil Rays (I understand they want to shorten the name to just "Tampa Bay 'Rays", which has my approval), Loe pitched one full inning, giving up no walks, but three hits and two runs. The two runs happened be off a homerun slapped by Upton in the seventh.

So let's see now: two and a third innings; three games pitched; three runs scored. But you know what, I still love the guys stuff. He's going to be a dominating pitcher in this game. PERIOD.

And I'll say it again, it's a GREAT day in Dallas... Johnny Out.

Bottom-Dwellers

Now, this is what I enjoy about this time of year when the Rangers fall out of contention. I look at the suckfish or bottom-dwellers to see just how bad they can get. This years contenders?

Tampa Bay: 57-93
Kansas City: 58-92

Kansas City would need to go no better than 4-8 to hit triple in the loss column. The Rays on the other hand, would have to do better than 5-7 to avoid the triple in the loss column. Kansas City has played good baseball of late, winners of 6 of their last 10 and overall, their win percentage is .387, so chances are they can hit the .416 needed to skip the “disgrace” of a 100 loss season… not that 99 is anything to brag about, but still. It’s the little things in life, you know. Tampa needs to split the last twelve to avoid the 100 mark. Tampa has four games against the Yankee and two against the Red Sox. The other six games are against Baltimore and the Indians. I just can see them mustering up six wins against these four teams. The Yankees and Red Sox should be good for four losses easy. You know, Tampa could avoid a 100 loss season. But they are on an eight game losing streak, they are coming up cold against Baltimore and after they finish the series with Baltimore, and then they follow that with the Yankees and then Boston. HELLO LOSE COLUMN #100!

Maybe the Rangers will go back to a Red Uniform. I keep saying it… maybe they might here me someday…

Texas/Tampa Bay Series

OK, so I did fairly well with the Cleveland series… Rangers won two out of three and had a winning April for only the second time this century (actually, since the year 2000). One thing I can pretty much guarantee, when I open the sports page, I simply look to the bottom of the barrel and there is Tampa Bay. And that is a shame, because my last name is Ray. Their jersey says “Rays” on it… and that simply bums me out. Why do they have to suck THAT bad, I don’t know. But the good news is they are only three games out at the start of May. The bad news is they are still in the same division as the Red Sox and Yankees, so that number is eventually going to go up. And they are still going to stay in last. More good news: The Rangers are in FIRST PLACE!!! By themselves, I might add. And that makes me happy. I can even make my own pitch for Roger Clemens to come here. Yes, Houston has a better team, a better record than the Rangers, but they also have better competition. He should think about what kind of impact he would make. Should he consider the Astros, his impact would not be of great importance and would not be felt as much as should he come to the Rangers. Houston has to consider the Reds and the Cardinals who are both a half game ahead right now with a record of 17-8. The Rangers are ahead with a record of 13-12. The competition and the impact that Roger could make here would be, well, I can’t think of a word right now to describe it. Phenomenal? Well, that just doesn’t do it justice. Indescribable? Well, most definitely. But whether Roger goes, here, there, nowhere… that will be his decision to make… I just hope he makes the best one for the Rangers franchise. The Rangers send two starters who have yet to win against two Tampa starters who have a 33% combined winning percentage. Let’s take a look.

Game 1:
Texas (13-12) at Tampa Bay (11-14)
Kameron Loe (0-2) vs. Seth McClung (1-3)
The Loe-Rider is at it again. Probably the best winless pitcher around… on the road this year, he has a 3.75 ERA with a 0-1 record, 12 innings in 2 starts. He also has given up fourteen hits, two walks, five earned runs, and struck out five. Hitters knock .280 against him. Tampa Bay played him in Arlington and slapped around for six runs in three innings in which Loe got a no-decision. Loe’s next start was a little better, 3 runs in 6 innings… Loe was bothered by flu-like symptoms during the Tampa start, if I remember correctly, so I expect better results tonight. He opened his season against Boston and really dominated despite loosing 2-1. I think with the Ottobot as the closer for the Rangers on the road-trip, the Loe-Rider can come home as a winner. McClung was blown out by the Rangers in Arlington, but did well against the Yankees. I still think that it’s about the people you face… certain people just do well against certain people… I don’t know why that is, but it is. Loe to do well against the Ray’s to get his first win of 2006: 8-2. (there is no need for an Ottobot save.)

Game 2:
Texas at Tampa Bay
Robinson Tejeda (0-0) vs. Mark Hendrickson (1-1)
Tejeda, well, I don’t have time to do my homework on him. I don’t know much on him and I haven’t read much on the Newberg reports on him. I know we picked him up in a trade this off-season and I did some reading then, but have since forgotten much. I do remember has (or had) a good arm. I do have time. Tejeda in AAA Oklahoma had a 0-2 record and a 5.33 ERA. He started 5 games, threw 27 innings even, gave up 28 hits, 16 earned runs, 3 dingers, 13 walks (always an important stat in my mind), and struck out 22. He has a WHIP of 1.52. I just remember Edison Volquez coming to the majors last year with similar stats (ERA and such) and really getting messed up. I just hope this doesn’t happen to Tejeda. Now this is odd. Hendrickson for Tampa Bay has a zero ERA but has a 1-1 record. He’s given up 3 unearned runs in a loss in his second start. He also pitched a complete game shutout in his 2006 debut. Current Ranger hitters have a .323 average against Hendrickson. Young has a homerun, two RBIs. As a team, the Rangers are 10 for 31… so it’s not like there’s a plethora of at-bats here. Hendrickson has pitched in the majors now for his fourth season. I’m not sure how this one is really going to play out… but my gut is screaming a split in the series and that Tejeda drops his debut. Sorry buddy. Score, let’s say – 4-3.

Daily Predictions

Pirates vs. Phillies - Wells vs. Tejada - GOOD GAME... Pirates will win, just because I want them to... OK, now for the real prediction. Both coming off great starts of 7 innings. Wells has a 3.57 ERA in his last 3 and Tejada has an even 2. Here's the kicker. Wells is 2-8 w/ a 5.77 ERA on the road. I regretfully take Philly on this. Score, oh let's go with 3-2.

Now, on to the real teams...

Padres vs. Braves - CHAN HO vs. somebody good Hampton - Well, saying Chan Ho means that whoever he is pitching for will loose. Braves 45-3.

Brewers vs. Astros - Davis vs. Astacio - well, Astacio isn't looking all too well, but he does have something going for him. He just saved a bunch of money... OK, OK, OK... seriously, though, he does have an ERA of 4.82 at home this year, and Davis has an ERA of 4.97 on the road. And the last 3 shows that they are pretty even as well. But, I take the Brewers anyway, just because the variable is that the Astros have not been all that consistent of late and that Astacio's ERA for the season is really high. Slugfest? Yes. Brewers 9-7.

Rangers vs. Rays - Dominguez vs. McClung - Boy, do these two guys know how to throw a fat pitch. Dominguez with a 5.59 ERA only to be showed up by McClung with a 7.71 ERA. OUCH! How does this guy stay in the rotation is beyond me. Good Luck Tampa. Let's not even look at the last 3... numbers so high to be only compared with the National Deficit (as in, it's really, really bad). However, seeing as to how the Rangers strike out against this guy, that may be the variable good enough for the Rays to win. So that will be my take, but I do predict another slugfest. Rays in a homer filled contest 11-9.