7-29 Newberg Report TROT COFFEY*

(* Trade Rumor Offerings To Chew On For Fun, Even Yuks)

Not to be confused with Brewers journeyman reliever Todd Coffey, the TROT COFFEY is a mailing list-only update on various trade and free agent rumblings unearthed, if not hatched, by the media:

But first, real quick: The Rangers’ Stretch Drive promotion closes at the end of the day tomorrow.  You can reserve seats for the final 24 home games of the season, which includes five with the Yankees, three with the Red Sox, three with the A’s, and the regular-season-ending four with the Angels – and guarantees you the option of purchasing the same seats for all playoff games.  It also includes significant savings off gate prices.  Basically, you get to be a season ticket holder now, just in time for the post-season. 

More details are contained in the attached PDF and on texasrangers.com.  You can also email Troy King at TKing@texasrangers.com with questions, or call 972-RANGERS.

·         The Rangers were “inching closer to a first base acquisition” on Wednesday (Jim Bowden, MLB Network Radio/Fox Sports Radio)

·         According to local reports and the identified national outlets, Texas is said to be in the mix, to one degree or another, for Prince Fielder (Jon Heyman, Sports Illustrated; Will Carroll, Baseball Prospectus), Adam Dunn (Jon Paul Morosi and Ken Rosenthal, Fox Sports), Jorge Cantu (Jayson Stark, ESPN; Rosenthal), Ty Wigginton (Rosenthal), Mike Lowell (Rob Bradford, WEEI, noting that Lowell is 11 for 22 with four doubles and four home runs in five rehab appearances over the last week), and Wes Helms

·         We talked about the Fielder idea during a radio segment I did on 105.3 The Fan yesterday; I just don’t think it makes sense to part with, say, Martin Perez or Tanner Scheppers, plus Chris Davis (who would be the 2010 version of the Nelson Cruz piece that was included when the same two teams made the Carlos Lee deal in 2006), plus an arm like Scott Feldman or Matt Harrison, plus another blue-chip prospect like Engel Beltre since the Rangers would need Milwaukee to dump a bunch of cash into the deal – if we’re going to load up with a package that looks anything like that (and I do expect the Brewers to demand something along those lines since they’d be giving up a year and a half of Fielder), I’m going hard after Josh Johnson or Zack Greinke or someone like that

·         According to a local report, Texas refused to discuss Beltre with Seattle in the Cliff Lee trade talks

·         I suspect it would take less to get Dunn than to get Fielder, but it’s still probably a prohibitive demand (Washington reportedly asked either for second baseman Gordon Beckham straight up or a package including righthander Dan Hudson plus either catcher Tyler Flowers or outfielder Jordan Danks or third baseman Brent Morel from the White Sox); don’t hold your breath

·         Shoehorning this in: Baseball America’s Jim Callis issued a Prospect Dream Team earlier this week, including Perez in his starting rotation and making Scheppers his closer

·         The Rangers haven’t ruled out waiting until August to address first base (Rosenthal)

·         According to a local report, Florida is interested in Frisco reliever Evan Reed as part of any Cantu trade

·         The Marlins are “believed to be looking for [a] young” lefthander for Cantu (Rosenthal) (for Texas, Derek Holland and Perez and Robbie Erlin are obviously not up for discussion, which could put Harrison or Michael Kirkman or Robbie Ross in play, though I doubt Texas would move Harrison for a bench bat; Kasey Kiker likely has no trade value at the moment)

·         The hangup between Texas and Florida on Cantu is that “the Marlins are balking at [taking on virtually all of the $2 million remaining on Cantu’s 2010 contract] unless the Rangers are willing to dramatically upgrade the player return” (Stark)

·         Nonetheless, “one [big league] source . . . believes that the Marlins, while still talking with other clubs, will get something done with Texas, as long as [the] Commissioner's Office signs off on [the] financials in the deal” (Gordon Edes, ESPN Boston)

·         The same local report that mentioned Reed adds that “clubs are inquiring” about Bakersfield reliever Fabio Castillo (the Reed and Castillo notes illustrate the importance of the Rangers’ prospect depth, as those two are probably on the third tier of the club’s prospect inventory but are still drawing July interest)

·         According to a local report, Texas has dispatched a scout to Washington to keep tabs on Josh Willingham and Cristian Guzman

·         Various reports indicated that the Rangers were in on Derrek Lee, who wielded his 10/5 rights and declined a trade to the Angels on Wednesday

·         The Angels may have “pulled back” from the trade market, deciding that, at 8.5 games back, the odds of extending their season past 162 don’t justify gutting the farm system for a short-term fix (Rosenthal) (see Sosa/Alvarez/Fletcher for Baines/Manrique, which went down 21 years ago today) (yesterday afternoon’s injury to scratched starter Joel Pineiro, who will miss 6-8 weeks with a strained oblique, surely sealed the Angels’ decision) (I sorta wish they did give up a legitimate prospect or two for Derrek Lee)

·         Los Angeles could even go so far as to becoming a seller this weekend rather than a buyer, potentially listening to overtures for veterans like Bobby Abreu, Brian Fuentes, Hideki Matsui, and Maicer Izturis (Mike DiGiovanna, Los Angeles Times)

·         Related note: Oakland righthander Ben Sheets is done for the year, needing flexor tendon surgery

·         The second-worst part about the Angels’ acquisition of Dan Haren, for me, is that the Yankees were said to be in on Haren, whose acquisition presumably would have taken them out of the Cliff Lee hunt this winter

·         At least one local report suggests that there are clubs showing some level of interest in Scott Feldman and Rich Harden (also reported by Rosenthal)

·         Texas maintained interest in Roy Oswalt, even after acquiring Cliff Lee (Rosenthal, Heyman), but this morning all indications are that the Astros and Phillies have agreed on players (reportedly including lefthander J.A. Happ, righthander Vance Worley, and maybe two more arms) and await only Oswalt’s approval of the deal, which could include a decision on whether his 2012 option would be exercised now

·         Sadly (if you’re a Phillies fan), any package headed by Happ probably means Philadelphia will give up more for Oswalt than they got for Lee

·         The Rangers asked Florida about righthander Chris Volstad but “were turned away” (Joe Capozzi, Palm Beach Post)

·         The Red Sox, Yankees, and Tigers are interested in Oakland reliever Michael Wuertz, but Oakland, “barring [a] knockout offer,” won’t trade the right-handed slider specialist (Rosenthal) (I’d love to add Wuertz here, but not for what the A’s would evidently want)

·         Get this: When Texas recently approached Pittsburgh about reliever Joel Hanrahan, the Pirates, “according to a scout with direct knowledge of teams’ dealings,” responded by asking for Neftali Feliz in return (Dejan Kovacevic, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette) (umm, wow)

·         The $590,000 signing bonus that Texas gave this week to California high school righthander Cody Buckel, the club’s second-round selection in June, was more than $80,000 over slot – the second-highest over-slot deal announced so far across the league (Callis; Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus) (Buckel, who is forgoing a commitment to Pepperdine, will report to the Arizona League)

·         The Rangers have granted righthander Geoff Geary’s request for his release

·         The trade deadline arrives Saturday afternoon at 3:00 Central; stay tuned  

Postgame Alert for the Astros

Houston Astros Postgame Alert
July 18, 2010

Houston 0, Pittsburgh 9 at PNC Park
Houston Record: (37-55)
Pittsburgh Record: (32-59)

Winning pitcher - Paul Maholm (6-7)
Losing pitcher - Roy Oswalt (6-11)

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9		R	H	E
HOU	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	3	0
PIT	0	2	0	0	2	2	0	3	X		9	19	1

GAME LINKS:
Recap | Full Box Score | Photo Gallery | Highlights

Visit astros.com for more information »
Standings »
Game Notes »

Next Houston Game: July 19, 2010 07:05 PM CT vs. Chicago Cubs

Upcoming Houston Home Games:
vs. Cincinnati Reds, July 23, 2010 07:05 PM CT Purchase Tickets
vs. Cincinnati Reds, July 24, 2010 06:05 PM CT Purchase Tickets
vs. Cincinnati Reds, July 25, 2010 01:05 PM CT Purchase Tickets

Pittsburgh Pirates (25-46) at Texas Rangers (43-28)

Scott Feldman (5-6, 5.16 ERA) looks for a third straight victory when he takes the ball Today for Texas.

The right-hander allowed three runs in seven innings of a 9-3 win at Houston on Friday - his third consecutive outing allowing three earned runs or fewer after giving up four or more in each of his previous six outings. Those are the only runs he’s given up in 13 innings over his last two starts.

Feldman is 3-2 with a 4.10 ERA in nine career interleague starts. None were against Pittsburgh, but he allowed one run in 1 2-3 innings of relief versus the Pirates in 2007.

Michael Young hit his 10th homer and drove in four runs while Nelson Cruz added three RBIs in Wednesday’s win. The Rangers have scored 64 runs during their winning streak.

The Pirates (25-46), who haven’t won on the road since May 25 at Cincinnati, have not dropped 14 straight away from home since a 19-game skid July 23-Aug. 30, 1985.

Pittsburgh starter Jeff Karstens (2-2, 4.72) will face the Rangers for the first time.

Forecast: My 2¢ on all this is a bit different from most, or at least what I have been hearing about this series. So, first off, what I am hearing is that of the starters for Pittsburgh, last night was the best chance to win a game in the series against Texas. And whatever hip-hop-hooray they say, I like Pittsburgh chances tonight more so than any of the other games. Do not mistake in what I am saying, I still pick the Rangers for tonight, but I think that Pittsburgh has a better chance tonight, statistically, than in the other two games. Why?

For starters, the Rangers tend to struggle against fresh blood and they have not played against Karstens, who is sporting a better ERA over Feldman right now, so even the little mojo ain't quite there. This season, oppenants are pegging Feldman for an even 300 average, however, Feldman has given up 13 hits in his last 13 innings (one per, which is generally around .275 or so, figuring in the double play here and there, but typically between .250 to .300) and has an ERA of 2.07 for his last two games and 2.89 for his last three. And those, by the way, were on the road. He's picking up steam and at a good time.

OK, OK, the Forecast: Like I said, I like the Rangers in this one, but only because they are the better team, as they have better pitching, hitting, and they are at home. I like this one to be close, or at least closer than yesterday's 13-3 blasting. Actually, I pick Karstens to deal the Rangers fits the first time through the lineup. The second time through the lineup, the Rangers will have started to figure things out, and the third time, will probably chase Karstens for a relief guy. Look for a score of something like 6-4, Rangers, with the bullpen handing out two around the seventh or so. Johnny Out.

Rangers sticking it to the Pirates EARLY

This pretty much says it all...

Pittsburgh Pirates (25-45) at Texas Rangers (42-28)

Josh Hamilton is on a tear and the Texas Rangers are in position for their longest winning streak in more than 19 years. The lowly Pittsburgh Pirates don’t seem to be a likely candidate to stop their run.

Hamilton looks to extend the majors’ longest hitting streak and lead the Rangers to a 10th consecutive victory Wednesday night against the Pirates.

They’ll give the ball to Paul Maholm (4-5, 3.77), who will make his first start against the Rangers hoping to avoid being the victim of a big inning again.

The left-hander allowed two hits while cruising through six scoreless innings Friday, but he surrendered four runs and five hits while managing only two outs in the seventh of a 4-3 loss to Cleveland.

Nippert (2-3, 5.01 ERA) had appeared 22 times out of the bullpen before lasting only three innings in Thursday’s 6-4 win at Florida, allowing three runs and seven hits.

The right-hander hasn’t pitched more than three innings since going 5 2-3 in his previous start Sept. 14, a 4-0 loss to Oakland.

Nippert has a 3.86 ERA in three games - one start - against Pittsburgh.

Forecast: As the Rangers are going for their tenth consecutive win, Vegas would say to bet Rangers. And who am I to go against the mighty, mighty gambling Gods of Vegas? OK, so chances are I would if I felt like it, however, the Rangers are knocking heads against the worst NL team, and the Rangers happen to be one of the hottest teams in baseball right now. I will say this: I really don't like Nippert in this one. I don't know why, I just don't, so look for the Rangers to win, but it to go to someone likely in the bullpen. Score: 8-5.

Wednesday, 9-21-05 Picks

Wednesday (9-21-05)

Rangers vs. Angels – Loe vs. Lackey – Lackey has done well this year, but is better on the road than at home. Loe also dominates on the road as well, having a 1.99 ERA away. Lackey, however, gave up 6 runs in 7 innings to Detroit! He did shut out the White Sox on 9/11 for 7 innings. The White Sox were cold, so whoopty freaking do. More importantly, this year against Texas, Lackey has a 7.63 ERA, is 1-0 in 3 starts, and has given up 2 homeruns in 15 1/3 innings. Current Ranger hitters bat .289 off him with 6 dingers in 204 at bats. Look for Michael Young to do well, he has a .421 average (16-38) with 2 homers and 9 RBIs. Tex does also, but with a .375 average (9-24). The Angels only have 23 at bats against Loe. As a team they are hitting .304 against him (7-23) but no homeruns. Despite a 9.00 ERA this year against the Angels (3 runs/3 innings), Loe has only 5 starts this year with a 2.32 ERA and a 4-1 record for those 5 starts. I will go with the Rangers on this, I just feel it. Score: 6-2.

Astros vs. Pittsburgh – Oswalt vs. Wells – Wells is 1-6 in his last 9 starts. During that time, one of his no decisions was against Houston. In that game, he threw 7 innings of shutout ball. Unfortunately for him, his 6 losses weren’t nearly as good. His last 3 games, he has a 7.90 ERA and his last, 5 he has an 8.14 ERA. Oswalt has been a lot better than that. 2.95 ERA on the year, 2.53 ERA in his last 3. My big concern is his 6-10 record on the road. He is 11-2 at home. I think he can outdo Wells, and pick up his 18th win tonight. Score: 7-2.

Braves vs. Phillies – Ramirez vs. Myers – Myers in his last start, lost to the Braves. Why not again tonight? Ramirez is very good at home, I expect that again today. Score: 5-4.

Brewers vs. Cubs – Ohka vs. Prior – Numbers show that they are very even. Time to dig… Prior has a better ERA on the season, but is a full run higher on the road. Ohka’s ERA is also higher at home. Prior has a winning record on the road, Ohka has a losing record at home, but an ERA lower than Prior’s road ERA, mind you. Prior, on average, goes two outs longer than Ohka. Both look great on the last 3. This is pretty even, to say the least. I have a hunch it will be the Alcoholics on this. Don’t know why. Score: 4-3.

D-Backs vs. Dodgers – Webb vs. Penny – Webb did great in his last start, and looks to be a sparkle in an otherwise dark sky for the D-Backs. Penny was rocked by the Giants in his last start, but didn’t get a decision. I think the D-Backs will do well tonight against the Dodgers. Score: 6-3.

FC Dallas vs. LA Galaxy – I have actually done some homework on this (surprise, surprise)… Dallas and the Galaxy are very even statistics wise, but Dallas has been very cold of late. This is the U.S. Cup Final, and for Dallas to have snuck their way in is very impressive despite how they have been playing. The Galaxy is very good at home (8-2-3- that’s wins-loses-ties), and Dallas is very poor on the road (5-6-3). Due to how the Galaxy dominates at home, I will go with them. Galaxy wins 3-1.

Home Plate

Monday's Picks

Monday (9-19-05)

Cowboys vs. Redskins – Both are 1-0. The offenses click for both sides. Moss and Portis are strong for the ‘Skins. Both defenses aren’t so good on 3rd down. Cowboys gave up two 4th down conversions. ‘Boys have Jones, Johnson, and Bledsoe who look great right now. Crayton is also notable due to having 6 catches and 89 yards. I liked the Cowboys from the very beginning on this one, and the stats back up my thoughts. Cowboys do it for the triplets, 24-14.

Astros vs. Pittsburgh – Clemens vs. Snell – Clemens has pitched very well against the Pirates this year, 15 innings, 1.20 ERA (2 runs on 6 hits) and 17 Ks, but he has yet to pull down a win from them. The Pirates as a team have a career .154 average against him. And no homeruns in 104 at bats. Maybe they are due? Clemens strikes out about 29% of the Pirate’s hitters. Snell has pitched against Houston, he is 0-1 with a 6.43 ERA. He gave up 11 hits and 5 runs in 7 innings and Houston is hitting .379 against him this year. Houston over Pittsburgh (a win for Roger? Yes.) 6-1.

Home Field

Quick Picks (Tuesday)

Quick Picks, to keep it short today:

Astros vs. Phillies - Oswalt vs. Lieber - Oswalt stinks at home. Lieber stinks on the road. Both coming off great outings, though. Oswalt should prevail. Astros 4-2.

D-Backs vs. Pirates - Vazquez vs. Maholm - Don't know anything about Maholm, he's a rookie. I will guess that he might do well, D-Backs aren't a great team. Still, I find myself picking them on this... Experince over newness, I guess. D-Backs 6-4.

Alcoholics vs. Reds - Helling vs. Harang - Rick Helling? He still pitching? And not badly, I might add. I will go with the drunkards, no wait... on second thought, Reds over Brewers 5-3. Hunch is calling me.

Mets vs. Braves - Pedro vs. Smoltz - WHAT A GAME! Two gladiators facing off... how can I choose? Both VERY even, but I will go with who is hot... Pedro. Mets over Braves 2-0. (That's right, a shutout!)

And that is it for today... catcha tomorrow, hopefully, I can dig deaper then. Johnny Out.

Home Plate

Daily Predictions

Pirates vs. Phillies - Wells vs. Tejada - GOOD GAME... Pirates will win, just because I want them to... OK, now for the real prediction. Both coming off great starts of 7 innings. Wells has a 3.57 ERA in his last 3 and Tejada has an even 2. Here's the kicker. Wells is 2-8 w/ a 5.77 ERA on the road. I regretfully take Philly on this. Score, oh let's go with 3-2.

Now, on to the real teams...

Padres vs. Braves - CHAN HO vs. somebody good Hampton - Well, saying Chan Ho means that whoever he is pitching for will loose. Braves 45-3.

Brewers vs. Astros - Davis vs. Astacio - well, Astacio isn't looking all too well, but he does have something going for him. He just saved a bunch of money... OK, OK, OK... seriously, though, he does have an ERA of 4.82 at home this year, and Davis has an ERA of 4.97 on the road. And the last 3 shows that they are pretty even as well. But, I take the Brewers anyway, just because the variable is that the Astros have not been all that consistent of late and that Astacio's ERA for the season is really high. Slugfest? Yes. Brewers 9-7.

Rangers vs. Rays - Dominguez vs. McClung - Boy, do these two guys know how to throw a fat pitch. Dominguez with a 5.59 ERA only to be showed up by McClung with a 7.71 ERA. OUCH! How does this guy stay in the rotation is beyond me. Good Luck Tampa. Let's not even look at the last 3... numbers so high to be only compared with the National Deficit (as in, it's really, really bad). However, seeing as to how the Rangers strike out against this guy, that may be the variable good enough for the Rays to win. So that will be my take, but I do predict another slugfest. Rays in a homer filled contest 11-9.